Recent content by DrAnthonyRodriguez

  1. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Simple Equation

    Dear J58, Thank you for your trply! Simple, but at 74 my brain is a bit slow. Dr. T
  2. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Simple Equation

    Hi! This is not a homework problem. I have the following equation: (S - P) * (1 - X) = P * X Where S is the spread (i.e., the difference) between two strike prices in dollars, P is the premium received for an option in dollars, and X is the probability of success. I need to re-write the...
  3. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Ranking stocks based on EPS growth rates

    Dear Staassis, Thank you for your reply! You are right. I worked out a few hypothetical examples and measuring the risk-adjusted return is a better method. Dcctor T
  4. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Ranking stocks based on EPS growth rates

    Hi! This is not a HW problem. To rank stocks based on their EPS growth rate, I plan to do the following: 1 - Calculate the stocks' EPS quarterly growth rate versus the prior year (to reckon with seasonality) for the last 3 years (4 years of data) and calculate the 3-year arithmetic average...
  5. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Testing a Hypothesized Mean for Trading Stock Options

    Hi! This is not a HW problem. For the purpose of trading stock options, I am trying to learn statistics on my own. A stock is currently selling at $50 . The terms of a call option specify that the stock will raise to $70 in 18 weeks. That is, the stock is expected to increase about 2%/week...
  6. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Probability of regression result

    Dear Staassis, Thank you for your reply. I started with simple linear regressions, before getting into more sophisticated analyses like ARIMA, in order to develop an understanding of the basics. FYI, 90 observations was a number picked at random. I agree that Excel is not the ultimate tool...
  7. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Probability of regression result

    Dear Staassis, Thank you for your reply. It's not a HW problem; I am learning stats on my own. I looked at CIs and PIs but I am looking for the 95% probability of a value higher than X, not the probability of a range. Tony
  8. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Probability of regression result

    Hi! A stock is selling at $50 now. Based on a 90-day linear regression (i.e., 90 historical periods), 80 days from today, the stock will be selling at $56. The standard error is 4. What is the 95% probability that the stock will be selling at least at $59? Using Excel, how is the 95%...
  9. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Software for Simple Linear Regression

    Dear HLSmith, Thank you for your reply. Do you mean using Excel's Analysis ToolPak? Doctor T
  10. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Software for Simple Linear Regression

    Dear Stats Fan, Thank you for your reply. Yes, R is one alternative. However, I avoid command-driven interfaces. Doctor T
  11. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Software for Simple Linear Regression

    Hi! I am looking for a free or fairly inexpensive software package to perform simple linear regression (time series) and exponential smoothing tests. I need to test about 100 data points (i.e., years). Suggestions? Thank you! Doctor R
  12. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    FREE Statistics Help

    Hi! A list of books, tutorials, YouTube videos, chat forums, and online calculators is found at: http://www.ZeteticLibrary.com/help.htm Dr. T
  13. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Wilkinson signed-rank test

    Hi! Say there are ten before and after pairs, which yield ten non-zero differences. Therefore, n=10. The null hypothesis is that the difference in medians is 0 (H0: M-after - M-before = 0). The one-tail alternative hypothesis is that the median-after is higher than the median-before (H1...
  14. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Bayes's Theorem

    Hi! Say there is a deck of 100 cards: Red w/ numbers = 40 Red w/ figures=15 Black w/ numbers=35 Black w/ figures=10 The only information known is that 55% of the cards are red and 45% of the cards are black and 75% of the cards have numbers and 25% of the cards have figures. That is the...
  15. DrAnthonyRodriguez

    Questions about the standard error

    SAMPLES The sample mean is an estimate of the population mean. And, the standard error (SE) of the sample mean -- s/SQRT(n) -- is a measure of the variability of the estimate. SAMPLING DISTRIBUTIONS The mean of a sampling distribution of a few sample means (i.e., “the mean of the few...