Recent content by Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Can’t argue there … even abstractions like public opinions are changing dramatically, as your time series continues to work. Gallup recently polled Americans on their viewpoints on a wide range of industries in 2020 (9/8), tracking the percentages of favorable, neutral or unfavorable opinions...
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    Election 2020

    As bourgeois democracy has got to go, and “Donald Trump can only be an intolerable glitch in the screen” of their master plan ... left-leaning wealthy folks preferring Global Governance organized the Transition Integrity Project (TIP, 8/28), playing simulated ‘war games’ of four election...
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    Election 2020

    Despite promising benevolent policy for Americans’ own good – such as weighing in on the side of prudence in our ongoing mask debate -- Biden continues slidin’ in odds-implied probability, and the Democratic and Republicans Parties are now deadlocked in the Election 2020 race for the White...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    On the unfathomable ‘unknowableness’ of our strange new world … Are You Ready for the “No One Could Have Known” Routine? (8/22) Par for the course in 2020... Unknowableness also applies to our political process. Luckily, we have proven-reliable avenues to mitigate unknowableness, with the...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    ...yes, probably.
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    This certainly sounds like rational Coronavirus analysis: Governments Are Faking It, and Copying Each Other (8/20). Pondering the risks of reopening the economy, schools, events, travel... It will be interesting to see how our wise global elite unwind this ‘Kabuki theater’ (8/11) of...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Sorry if this thread stirs emotions, with its overall way-badness. It's just kinda hard to find goodness in this global pandemic ... then resultant societal lockdown and, with it, economic collapse ... then widespread violent pandemonium ... then [who-tf knows what's next]... --------[ WAIT...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    ** BINGO ** The nuance between dying with, and dying from, COVID-19 makes all the difference in clouding the official check-marked fatality data … right, Dr Birx? (early April press conference, where she outlines the difference between US official policy and that of other countries). Also...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Your doubts have merit in a general sense, but at least some folks like the intrepid cliodynamist, Dr Turchin, take a crack at the 'Big Picture' (see earlier post). And let's not forget that making projections about the future are part of the essence of being human. As is socializing, although...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    While the concept of ‘Life’ is indeed binary -- in the classic ON/OFF sense -- the more nuanced concept of time in biology is a meaningful metric to understand and monitor the impact of novel forces on an organism’s population and environment. In the animal realm, this applies from mayflies to...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    This is a continuation of post… Finally, we have detailed thorough academic rational analyses -- by Imperial College London* -- on the overall impact of the COVID-19 shutdown (7/17, PDF): Conclusion – lockdown has been massively costly and benefits [are] unlikely to have matched [the cost]...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    A Nobel-winning economist suggests that ‘Narrative epidemics’ now drive the wacky valuation of equities: Understanding the Pandemic Stock Market (7/7). Markets no longer react to the news, instead react to the reaction to the news. This could lead one to ponder: Cui bono? …the 0.001% is...
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    Election 2020

    This is a continuation of thread: Nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion Drudge links to an odds-implied probability study (7/1) that utilizes the conventional linear odds-to-probs conversion, where each candidate’s American-format odds are used to estimate their probability independently, and...
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    Election 2020

    The Biden campaign's ground-breaking subterranean strategy -- facilitating the avoidance of tough questions (6/26) -- extends his party's lead in odds-implied probability, doubling the President's, for Election 2020. What an ironic twist history holds on the origins of the Democratic and...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Despite my being a fan of Turchin since his 2013 prognoses on his 60-year order-disorder cycle, this material wasn't applicable/relevant, until our pandemic lockdown recently transitioned into social-justice pandemonium. That said, Turchin was cited earlier in this thread, commenting on the...