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  1. noetsi

    interpreting odds ratios

    Ten years and I still struggle with this :p I have a continuous predictor. Years of experience I am predicting a dv that is success or not success (I am maximizing success) My odds ratio is 1.103 (it is statistically significant as is the model). I interpret that as For every year they have...
  2. noetsi

    Non linear regression with categorical dependent variable.

    I have a dependent variable which is a successful or unsuccessful closure. My predictor is how many months (I also ran years) of experience a counselor who handles that case has. The results are very statistically significant, but the effect size is very small (the odds ratio is .962 roughly...
  3. noetsi

    Valid use of regression

    I have a dependent variable which status you close in (its a dummy variable). My predictor is how many months of experience counselors associated with the case has. There are about 11,5000 cases but only about 400 distinct counselors - they have many cases. So you have one number of the dv but...
  4. noetsi

    zoo question

    According to what I have read you do zoo time series this way: zoospend<-zoo(X,ts) where xis a vector, matrix, or data frame, and dt is a vector of corresponding dates or datetimes I have a table that has two columns one spending and the other months associated with that spending. The spending...
  5. noetsi

    What if you try to install a package and nothing happens....

    I ran install.packages((ggfortify) and got a plus forever..... Not sure at what point you decide its not going to run and given up. Or how you can tell R to quit trying rather than having to open a new session. Well I guess escape works. That package apparently won't install on my system.
  6. noetsi


    I have not seen this before not at all sure what it means library("tidyverse") -- Attaching packages --------------------------------------- tidyverse 1.3.0 -- v ggplot2 3.3.0 v purrr 0.3.4 v tibble 3.0.1 v dplyr 1.0.0 v tidyr 1.1.0 v stringr 1.4.0 v readr 1.3.1 v...
  7. noetsi

    formatting issues

    I am having trouble with formatting data in r. I do setwd("S:\\CIU\\Testfolder") mydata<-read.csv(file="datacsv.csv") str(mydata) which shows the field rehab.rate is a character that looks like "48.67%" I tried mydata1<-mydata mydata1$rehab.rate=as.numeric((gsub("%","",mydata1$rehab.rate)))...
  8. noetsi

    When assumptions get violated.

    Not talking about violations of the known assumptions of a method. I have reasonable confidence on those. Plus I can always blaame spunky for them. I normally run linear and logistic regression (and am starting to do time series regression) although I know other methods. One thing that always...
  9. noetsi

    What is this time series coding doing

    (fit<-auto.arima(uschange[,"Consumption],xreg=uschange[,"Income])) It is what is in the brackets that I am asking about I don't know what it is doing. It is figure 9.1 in the link below.
  10. noetsi

    Observational Study

    "In an observational study of more than 96,000 COVID-19 patients at 671 hospitals on six continents, the malaria drug hydroxychloroquine was tied to an increased risk of death, researchers reported on Friday. It was not clear whether taking the drug provided patients with any benefit, according...
  11. noetsi

    Graphs or formal tests

    I was considering this in the context of stationarity (unit roots) but it applies to many things. I used to assume that formal tests were the way to go. Say the ADF for stationarity. But I was reading through an author I have a lot of respect for, and he focused on graphs to make these...
  12. noetsi

    Problem with package

    I tried to install tidyverse. I thought it worked then got this library(tidyverse) Error: package or namespace load failed for ‘tidyverse’ in loadNamespace(i, c(lib.loc, .libPaths()), versionCheck = vI[]): namespace ‘rlang’ 0.4.5 is already loaded, but >= 0.4.6 is required I have the most...
  13. noetsi

    Univariate versus multivariate time series

    If all you care about is forecasting, and for this purpose that is all I care about, which works best univariate and multivariate time series. I predict spending, among other things, if that matters. I had read that univariate models were nearly always more accurate, but that was written...
  14. noetsi

    Time series regression

    What is the best and simplest form of time series regression. I have looked at lots and there are major issues with complexity and how to deal with variables when one is stationary and the other is not. I want to know how two or more predictors are influencing Y over time. I am not concerned...
  15. noetsi

    time series objects

    I am trying to create a time series object. The data is in a folder "S:\\CIU\\A2_Routine Reports Library\\R\\DataforTS.xlsx" I run fts<-ts("S:\\CIU\\A2_Routine Reports Library\\R\\DataforTS.xlsx"[,2],start=c(2014,12),frequency=12) and get Error in "S:\\CIU\\A2_Routine Reports...
  16. noetsi

    Installing Rstudio

    What is the simplest way to install this... There are a lot of sites that have installation and I am not sure if they are all the same. Or if some charge. I would appreciate a link to install a free version for windows 10.
  17. noetsi

    How to improve forecasting

    I forecast monthly spending two years into the future. While our error is generally acceptable (5 percent or so a year out) I want to improve on that. I run exponential smoothing models (six of which I pick the best 3, best being defined by a MAPE from a hold out data set). I am trying to add an...
  18. noetsi

    What is percent difference really doing.

    This is (a1-b1)/ ((a1+B1)/2) and is a way a former poster suggested I use to compare two numbers. I have done so a lot for years, but this week I began to wonder how wise that is. The problem is that really huge differences seem to be understated. For example numbers that are 3 times as large...
  19. noetsi

    What package to install

    I am trying to install the necessary packages to run ARIMA for r. It says what package does this (I think) on page 10/11 of the link (this is page 5/6 in the actual book). I can't figure out what package you are supposed to install...
  20. noetsi

    Best form of time series regression

    If you want to know if an X influences a Y at some point in the future, or several points, which is the best type of time series regression to run. I have looked at many none of which seem to work. I want to focus on the best one. All I really want to know is 1) which predictors have the most...