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  1. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    j58, - I started this response yesterday, but lost it... - I think you're referring to what's called the Texas Sharpshooter Fallacy. The following is at least part of my answer Or, it could be that all possible events – given H – are equally unlikely (e.g. a fair lottery) — if so, the...
  2. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Sparrow, - From #131 for .60: - Re P(D|H): - I figure that H is made up of multiple specific options: #1. My self exists an infinity of times. #2. My self exists multiple times, but not an infinity of times. #3. MY self exists infinitely, but on different "planes." - If those are all the...
  3. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Greta, - I've been screwing up... - If I actually said that P(E|H) is 1 and P(E|~H) is 1, I shouldn't have... - Re "I propose that P(D|~H) is virtually zero, P(~H) is .99, P( E|~H) is about .60 and P(H) is .01." I should have said "I propose that P(D|~H) is virtually zero, P(~H) is .99, P(...
  4. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    CB, - Revising my formula to fit your symbols and reincarnation as H. - Re P(H): From #99, revised a little. - In regard to the hypothesis that reincarnation does not exist, I propose that P(D|~H) is virtually zero, P(~H) is .99, P( E|~H) is about .60 and P(H) is .01. - I also suggest that the...
  5. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    - From above: Jabba argues that P(D|~H), the probability of him existing, would be some small number if reincarnation does not exist, and that's intuitively reasonable, but he has no actual empirical data or statistical model to put a number on how small. CowboyBear, - Just to clarify, in my...
  6. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    - From above: Jabba argues that P(D|~H), the probability of him existing, would be some small number if reincarnation does not exist, and that's intuitively reasonable, but he has no actual empirical data or statistical model to put a number on how small. CowboyBear, - Just to clarify, in my...
  7. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Greta - I've used E to designate a particular Event -- the current existence of my awareness. - The probability of my current existence [P(E)], is 1 (in a sense) --under both hypotheses. - In Bayesian statistics, P(E|H) is the probability (or "likelihood") of my current existence if H (that my...
  8. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    - Can we validly estimate the likelihood of the current existence of my "self" -- given that it can exist for only one finite time at most? Seems to me that we can -- at least to the extent that we can conclude that its likelihood is extremely small. - Next, since the same goes for everyone, is...
  9. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Abaddon, - As you know, I disagree. - Please link whatever posts you want. - I hope that someone over here is still listening.
  10. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Abaddon, - Please explain why you say that.
  11. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    CowboyBear, - I think I've responded to all of your questions and objections. I'll look again. - Please tell me where you disagree.
  12. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Greta, - I don't know, or remember, what's gone before that you should be aware of, but the specific "existence" that I'm referring to is my "self," and not my body. - Re P(E|~H): - I figure that ~H is made up of multiple specific options: #1. My self exists an infinity of times. #2. My self...
  13. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Abbadon, - When flipping a fair coin, what's the probability that it will land heads?
  14. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Greta, - H is that I have only one finite life (at most). Abbreviated as OOFLam. - P(H) = .99 - That prior is an estimate based upon scientific conclusions. I suspect that I'm being generous. - As to data and distributions, I don't really know the right answers... Maybe, these concepts are...
  15. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Bryan, - It is the same logic as used in the anthropic principle, but how do you support "that it tries to use limited information (observations) to infer global principles about things to which the observation provides no basis for"? The numbers used to determine the likelihood of life in a...
  16. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Dason, - I'm not sure that I understand your question, but my best guess is that you're asking for the likelihood of drawing x -- given the hypothesis (population) of X. If so, we don't know anything about X or x and don't have a clue as to the likelihood of drawing x from X.
  17. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    Dason, - The "data" I'm using for P(E|H) is the evidence determining what is needed to result in my current existence. - The data I'm using for P(E|~H) is the evidence supporting the different possible specific hypotheses included in ~H. - The data I'm using for the prior probabilities is the...
  18. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    - Hopefully, someone is still tuning in. If so, please let me know where you disagree. - Now, I'll re-read the whole thread and try to answer any unanswered questions or objections.
  19. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    - I still think that my priors are generous in favor of the H side. The following are a couple more sites that I think support my suspicion. - http://www.pewforum.org/2009/11/05/scientists-and-belief/ - https://phys.org/news/2015-12-worldwide-survey-religion-science-scientists.html - I just...
  20. Jabba

    Immortality & Bayesian Statistics

    1. What is the posterior probability that the person is male? 2. Do the two likelihoods add to 1? 3. If not, is there any problem with that? Do the proportion of women who wear pants and the proportion of men who wear pants really have to sum to 1? CowboyBear, - Re: 1...