# probability

1. ### Sensitivity of a diagnostic test

There is an exercise that I am not able to solve: Diagnostic tests A1 and A2 are used to detect the presence or absence of a disease. The results of A1 and A2 are a priori independent of the presence or absence of the disease. A1 and A2 have sensitivity Sen1 and Sen2, respectively. A new...
2. ### Validate my algorithm with probability?

Before I start I wanna say sorry. This post might a bit vague, I'm not really sure where I'm going and it's been a while since I took a stat class. I'm hoping someone can nudge me in the right direction here, kinda lost at the moment. We have an algorithm for correcting people's height - it's...
3. ### Probability given an occurrence rate (small airplane fatal accidents)

Hi All, I would like to know if the method I’m using to calculate a probability based on an occurrence rate is correct or if there is a better method to use. Here is some context to give you an idea of what I’m working with: I am looking at determining the probability of a fatal accident...
4. ### Sports outcome probability

Hello! Here is the scenario I have: In ice hockey, team A is ahead at the end of the 2nd period (they have games of 3 periods for those who do not know). When team A is ahead at this point in the game, they go on to win 75% of the time. When team B is losing at the end of the 2nd period, as they...
5. ### Multi-roll, 12 sided die outcomes (used brute force 725,000 die rolls)

I have forgotten my grad school probability and need some help with the following. I am trying to create a .xls that I can use to look at the odds of multiple dice throws. Quantity of dice = 10 (n) # of sides per dice = 20 (s) Each dice has the following colors instead of numbers: 4 Yellow...
6. ### How do you put a Distribution in a Risk Analysis?

In conducting a Probability Risk Analysis or statistical risk Analysis, for example over the actions of nature for a particular period of time and for a particular geographical location, one is expected to put a distribution over all the actions of nature and choose the action that maximizes...
7. ### Probability Over 2 Sequences Of Trials

Hey everyone! I'm coding a program that identifies appearances of a lowercase "x" in a base64 encoded string. Like the following: DWADCrxV+PhR4zxkQrIMUtarkN11aitHI8DEnzyG19CD... I know the probability of finding at least one "x" in a sequence of 10 chars. My doubt is about dealing with...
8. ### Probability of Vehicles and Pedestrians meeting

Hi, I need to produce a probability for a vehicle and a pedestrian meeting along a 1km road. Here is what I know: •1km road •cars take 3 minutes to travel •pedestrians take 12 minutes to travel •30 cars an hour •20 pedestrians an hour The cars and pedestrians may also be grouped or evening...
9. ### Quality Control/Probability Problem

A production engineer has designed a system to remove sugars from a liquid product. Each product must contain an amount of sugar less than or equal to 12g. The engineer randomly samples 3 products and finds the sugar contents to be 4.5, 3.7, and 3.2g respectively. The sample mean is 3.8g and the...

12. ### Card picking dependant probability without replacement - P(6,6,Red)

Hi All, I'm trying to teach myself statistics online @ khan academy and although its a wonderful resource I have no one to turn to for help when I don't understand. I hope someone here might be able to give me some advice. I've made some questions up myself to try and work out the answer and...
13. ### Leave-one-out error strictly decreasing when number of parameters is increased, when it should not be?

People may or may not be able to help intuitively shed light on my problem. Maybe I haven't considered some aspects. I'm running a non-parametric (kernel) regularized least squares estimation on some binary training data to then predict probabilistic values for the non-training data. I have 9...
14. ### Binomial Probability of Remaining Trials at a different X value

I am trying to find the binomial probability of the remaining trials in a binomial probability at a different probability of success on the leftover trials. My example: Number of Trials 6 Number of Successes 2 Prob of success on one trial: 75.8% Binomial probability output: 2.95% Out of my...

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17. ### Calculate propability of certain outcome

So I have a question, these statistics lessons have been such a long time that I'm not sure how to calculate the following: Say that there is a new disease, and I have a test that is 100% reliable. I have tested 100 people, and have found that 3 people got the disease. So from now on this is...
18. ### How to get amount to pay in order to be fair

If a man purchases a raffle ticket, he can win a first price of $50,000 or a second price of$20, 000 with probabilities 0.001 and 0.003. What should be a fair price to pay for the ticket?
19. ### Concept of Stationary Population in Demography.

The definition of stationary population is: "The stationary population is a model without immigration or emigration in which the same age-specific probabilities of death apply continuously and in which there are the same number of births and deaths each year." Can anyone please explain me...
20. ### Relationship between events

I've come across this exercise. There has been a research on free time activities, which has the following findings: 55% of people that are under 50 years old run regularly (three times per week), whereas only 35% of people who are over 50 run regularly. Assume that 60% of people are under 50...