I'd like to know given my win rate what is the average number of wins and points that I'm getting.

- Thread starter quake004
- Start date

I'd like to know given my win rate what is the average number of wins and points that I'm getting.

Ok I found the solution somewhere at least for the points. We have the probability of wining pw, and of losing pl. We get the probability of going 0-3, 1-3, ..., 7-2, 7-1, 7-0 like:

Probability of going 0-3: pw^0 * pl^3

Probability of going 1-3: pw^1 * pl^3

Probability of going 2-3: pw^2 * pl^3

Then we get the probability of getting each point by multiplying the points by the probability

Probability of getting 5 points: (pw^0 + pl^3) * 5

Then we sum all the probabilities of getting each of the points to get the average points for or win rate. Am I correct?

Probability of going 0-3: pw^0 * pl^3

Probability of going 1-3: pw^1 * pl^3

Probability of going 2-3: pw^2 * pl^3

Then we get the probability of getting each point by multiplying the points by the probability

Probability of getting 5 points: (pw^0 + pl^3) * 5

Then we sum all the probabilities of getting each of the points to get the average points for or win rate. Am I correct?

Last edited:

keep it crunchy!

So probability of going 1-3 is 4*pw^1*pl^3?

You actually might be able solve it using something close to what you iz doing above, but will be more tedious.

Q: How will you know if you are right or not, once you got a solutione. Ask internet? I recommend simulation.