Bayes Statistics

kvs

New Member
#1
For reliability application, I would like to know the procedure to use bayes statistics.
I have a component's failure data collected from various sources as an average failure value. (Prior)
I also have some plant experience data collected for a few years on the component's failure information.

By assuming a log-normal dist for prior with an assumed error factor value and combining the plant data, how do i estimate the posterior failure rate. Can anyone explain with the following example:

If the prior mean failure rate on demand is 2.7E-5 with an error factor of say, 3 and plant experience of 2 failures in 100 demands (0.02).
What is the posterior mean (or median) failure rate.

--KVS