bayes's theorem and conditional probability question

A quick hint. You are looking for the chance that Alice has hit the target given that Bob has not hit the target on the previous shot.


TS Contributor
(i) Alice and Bob. . .
I recommend you solve this three different ways, if possible.
By formula.
By tree diagram (this is the easy way).
By Venn diagram.

There are benefits to doing this problem several different ways - but - I admit, though, that this is a Herculean task for some [including me] so there is some risk of brain damage. . .:D

Deciding to take on this challenge is a cost/risk/benefit tradeoff, as are many decisions. But if you succeed your understanding of what "The Rev" preached will be rock-solid.