Election 2020

#1
This is a continuation of thread: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nfl-postseason-probabilities.74650/#post-219031

With South Carolina in the books -- for Biden, big-time -- and Super Tuesday on deck, let's revisit the implied probabilities:

Dem.2020,3-1-20.jpg

Good ol' Joe has made a significant gain in implied probability -- up 5X since we last checked -- but Bernie remains the heavy favorite in this horse race to Milwaukee and beyond.
 
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#2
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

When posting information like these, it may be beneficial to cite where some of the numbers come from (e.g., 538 and provide the direct URL; you calculated them based on ??), so we verify and weight the source.

Thanks.
 
#5
Wow, the point has been missed.

The calculations above are based solely on odds from Betfair, which I like because they do bet-matching, which means the most in real time. I'm not sure where the explanation should begin ... please advise. Preferably, algorithmically.
 
#8
That's close enough to an algorithm, I guess, so...

The numbers are solely based on the odds shown, in this case from Betfair.

Odds-and-probability have a monatomic relationship in zero-sum events, where with n competitive outcomes:

Odds.1 x Prob.1 = Odds.2 x Prob.2 = ... = Odds.n x Prob.n
NOTE: 'Odds' is the profit on a $1 bet, or the decimal equivalent of fractional odds.

You will note that this is the case in all the probability charts that I've posted, as it should be.

See also: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/#post-215277
 
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#9
Whoa, that was a Super Tuesday for Joe Biden, the Delaware Destroyer who shredded the field.

Dem.2020,3-4-20.jpg

Of course, this is just a snapshot in time of a projection calculated from interdependent ever-changing abstractions, which are based on the whims of the American public, both in voting and betting* ... anything can happen from here, and probably will.

For some perspective, see: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nfl-postseason-probabilities.74650/#post-219031.

Reminder: Don't shoot the messenger.
* Technically, most of wagers are probably unAmerican, so to speak, what with our arcane US gambling laws.
-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

What a difference a few hours make in rough-and-tumble American politics ... with Bloomberg now out of the race, $500M lighter, here's an update on the implied probabilities from Betfair odds:

Dem.2020,3-4-20.1.jpg

This level of Joementum seems a bit much and perhaps a tad premature ... but maybe now Biden can get his old boss to put in a good word or two on his behalf. No?

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Joementum has infected the odds on the general Presidential Election 2020. Down by a substantial margin in probability to the incumbent a week or so ago, the septuagenarians are now in a feverish dead heat.

Prez.odds,3-14-20.jpg
 
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