Election 2020

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member

With South Carolina in the books -- for Biden, big-time -- and Super Tuesday on deck, let's revisit the implied probabilities:

Good ol' Joe has made a significant gain in implied probability -- up 5X since we last checked -- but Bernie remains the heavy favorite in this horse race to Milwaukee and beyond.

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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

When posting information like these, it may be beneficial to cite where some of the numbers come from (e.g., 538 and provide the direct URL; you calculated them based on ??), so we verify and weight the source.

Thanks.

noetsi

Fortran must die
Since the probabilities are unknown, how do they do the projections?

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
Polling and weighting of sources.

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
Wow, the point has been missed.

The calculations above are based solely on odds from Betfair, which I like because they do bet-matching, which means the most in real time. I'm not sure where the explanation should begin ... please advise. Preferably, algorithmically.

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
If you're trolling me, well played. If not, I'm flummoxed.

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
No trolling here. I am usually direct in my comments/criticisms.

Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Member
That's close enough to an algorithm, I guess, so...

The numbers are solely based on the odds shown, in this case from Betfair.

Odds-and-probability have a monatomic relationship in zero-sum events, where with n competitive outcomes:

Odds.1 x Prob.1 = Odds.2 x Prob.2 = ... = Odds.n x Prob.n
NOTE: 'Odds' is the profit on a $1 bet, or the decimal equivalent of fractional odds. You will note that this is the case in all the probability charts that I've posted, as it should be. See also: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/#post-215277 Last edited: Nonlinear_Zero-Sum Member Whoa, that was a Super Tuesday for Joe Biden, the Delaware Destroyer who shredded the field. Of course, this is just a snapshot in time of a projection calculated from interdependent ever-changing abstractions, which are based on the whims of the American public, both in voting and betting* ... anything can happen from here, and probably will. For some perspective, see: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nfl-postseason-probabilities.74650/#post-219031. Reminder: Don't shoot the messenger. * Technically, most of wagers are probably unAmerican, so to speak, what with our arcane US gambling laws. -----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------ What a difference a few hours make in rough-and-tumble American politics ... with Bloomberg now out of the race,$500M lighter, here's an update on the implied probabilities from Betfair odds:

This level of Joementum seems a bit much and perhaps a tad premature ... but maybe now Biden can get his old boss to put in a good word or two on his behalf. No?

-----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------

Joementum has infected the odds on the general Presidential Election 2020. Down by a substantial margin in probability to the incumbent a week or so ago, the septuagenarians are now in a feverish dead heat.

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