Excel Simulation (Monte Carlo) help

[BrentCOS]

Hi all,

I've been racking my non-statistical brain on my Excel simulation (monte carlo sim predicts profit). I have created the model and as I review the outputs, I'm not confident that it's correct. With that said, is there anyone who could review it and let me know if you see any obvious mistakes? Given I'm a biologist, you could guess my model is quite simplistic so nothing crazy going on here.

I have a couple of static inputs and a handful of random variables that are tied to simple frequency tables. I use Excel's data table to run 10,000 simulations and then summary stats finish it off along with a relative frequency table/plot. (I hope I'm using the proper terms here!).

Anyway, if anyone would like to take a peek at what I created to see if there are any obvious goof-ups, I can share the file.

Thank you for your consideration.

 

[BGM]

I think some TSers (including me) are willing to help you to check, say those codes and files. But the troublesome issue is that it may not be convenient for other to download external file from forum. Not sure if you can describe more, or sharing the file with online drive, or have some online displaying tools for excel files.

 

[BrentCOS]

I think some TSers (including me) are willing to help you to check, say those codes and files. But the troublesome issue is that it may not be convenient for other to download external file from forum. Not sure if you can describe more, or sharing the file with online drive, or have some online displaying tools for excel files.

Hi BGM,

Thank you very much for your willingness to take a look. I'll share a Dropbox link with you (PM = private message) and that will provide you access to the Excel file. In the PM I'll share a little bit about what my objective is and what you'll see in the Excel file. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me.

One primary question about the file I have is: In the output simulation (ie, simulation 1 in row 64), does that mean for the demand of 144,000 units that every unit sold for the exact same "price" and "cost"? If so, that seems nearly impossible. Perhaps I'm interpreting it incorrectly or perhaps I've set up the simulation incorrectly.

Thank you again,

Brent

 

[BrentCOS]

Hi BGM,

Thank you very much for your willingness to take a look. I'll share a Dropbox link with you (PM = private message) and that will provide you access to the Excel file. In the PM I'll share a little bit about what my objective is and what you'll see in the Excel file. If you have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me.

One primary question about the file I have is: In the output simulation (ie, simulation 1 in row 64), does that mean for the demand of 144,000 units that every unit sold for the exact same "price" and "cost"? If so, that seems nearly impossible. Perhaps I'm interpreting it incorrectly or perhaps I've set up the simulation incorrectly.

Thank you again,

Brent

DANG! I drafted a detailed private message to you BGM and then submitted it and the system said I cannot send PMs with under 5 posts! I've lost it all now.

Would you mind emailing me instead? If so, please PM me. I value your time and I would like to offer to make a small donation (I work for a start-up company so I get paid peanuts!) of $25 to your forum or to Wounded Warriors. Thank you for trying to work with me.

Brent