exchange rate and important variables - statistics

#1
I started to write an empirical part of my bachelor's thesis on exchange rates. I have 5 data. Currency rate dependent variable such as eur/usd = 1,23 and four independent variables: inflation, unemployment, interest rates, etc. I know theoretically how independent variables affect the dependent variable. What can I count to make sense? What tools? Can I use multiple regression?
 
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#2
Can I use multiple regression?
Well, you can start with that. And maybe move to cointerated models later.

But you will need inflation etc for both "countries".

(I guess that you are familiar with the rational expectations theory that all information is already included in the rate itself. All speculative markets are very difficult to model, and impossible to predict. (Otherwise we would not be very rich.)