Getting started - golf statistics

#1
Hi, I've tried to search the forums before asking a question but it seems the search feature does not work.

So, my question is , given a set of historical data on golf results, which statistical tools or methods would you recommend if I wanted to use the historical data to reason on future events?

So for example, if I have 1000 instances where a random golfer was placed 20th on round one, and I also know where that same golfer was placed on round four, how can I use statistics to calculate best where a golfer will finish , if placed 20th on round one?
I've looked at standard deviation and poisson distribution, but there seem to be so many different types of statistical calculations that I'm not sure where I should focus my studies?

Hope that makes some sense and someone can offer some advice, many thanks
 

Dason

Ambassador to the humans
#2
There's typically not just a single way to do this kind of thing. It depends on the assumptions you want to make. I don't know of an off the shelf solution for what you're looking to do but if you want to look into what's been done before for similar kinds of problems you might be interested in learning a bit about the Bradley Terry model.