# Help with what a question is asking

#### Krazzy2013

##### New Member
I know how to calculate probabilities, but I want to make sure that I am understanding the question.

"What is the probability that the Dow Jones Index will increase by more than 11% in the coming year?"

and

"What is the probability Dow (X) will decrease more than 11% in the coming year?"

Dow Jones follows a Normal Distribution, Mean = 11% and St Dev = 13%

I feel like this is almost too simple.

P(X>11%)= 1-normdist(0.11,0.11,0.13)=50%

P(X<11%)= normdist(0.11,0.11,0.13)=50%

HOWEVER... I was worried maybe it mean 11% above and beyond the mean so P(X>22%) and P(X<0).

I just need clarification.

Thanks so much!

#### Karabiner

##### TS Contributor
"What is the probability Dow (X) will decrease more than 11% in the coming year?"
= what is the probabilty for < -11 (not: what is the probability for < +11).

With kind regards

K.

#### Krazzy2013

##### New Member
Can you explain why please. I guess I don't understand why it would be -11%.

Thanks!

@Karabiner