**Re: Immortality & Bayesian Statistics/First Page**
- First page:

One Finite Life?

THE BASIC IDEA

1. I think I can virtually prove that the "well-educated" belief that

we each have but one, finite, life to live is incorrect.

2. I call this belief "well-educated" because most of those who hold

it are well educated.

3. But, just to be perfectly clear, when talking about "life," I am

not referring to a body - I'm referring, instead, to a "self."

4. Unfortunately, "self" is a difficult concept to convey -- "personal

consciousness" might be the best, simple, term to use.

5. "Soul" might work better - but, only if we can drop its built-in

connotation of "immortality"...

6. Not to deny immortality, but neither should it be snuck in as an

implied given.

7. Perhaps, the best example of the kind of self I'm addressing is the

self that keeps coming back if reincarnation is real.

8. (If those don't work, try Wikipedia.)

9. Take your time - this stuff isn't easy.

10. I think that I can virtually prove that this well-educated belief is

false because simple deduction applied to science's possible explanations

for different selves leads to the conclusion that the probability of my,

current, personal existence - given our well-educated belief -- is virtually

zero...

11. In other words, if our well-educated belief is true, I really

shouldn't be here.

12. And, since I am here, that deduction has significant - negative --

mathematical implications regarding the truth of our well-educated belief.

13. In fact, my current existence is so unlikely -- given our

well-educated belief -- that the negative mathematical implications

regarding this belief are virtually "irresistible."

14. In other words, I'm claiming that my own personal existence virtually

proves that our well-educated belief is wrong...

15. I'll elaborate.

16. For statisticians:

a. The likelihood of drawing a particular sample from a particular

population has mathematical implications re the probability that a

particular sample was, in fact, drawn from that population...

b. In this case, I (the sample) was very likely

not drawn from a

hypothetical population of people having just one, finite, life to live.

17. For dummies:

a. The likelihood of a "red state" to elect Candidate X is 10%.

b. State A elects Candidate X.

c. State A is probably not a "red state."

18. Take your time...