Messenger query

[Kookaburra]

Very new to this forum.

This is the scenario: Two people log out of Facebook/Messenger at the exact same time 25 times over 18 days. They are facebook friends but do not use Messenger to communicate with each other

I'm trying to find out the probability that this would happen as a coincidence?

Not sure if I've worded this correctly?

 

[fed2]

seems like you need a control group to compare to, in order to make concrete what it means 'as a coincidence'.

 

[hlsmith]

Also, even though they are not communicating, the logging off could also be dependent on other common factors (e.g., they live in same time zone, both are going to bed, dinner, work, watching a common show, etc.). So, even though they seem independent from each other, they have similarities.

 

[fed2]

it will be more fun though if you just assume that the logging off is at random and homogenous in time. that will probably give a very very small p-value. You should play elvis presley's "suspicious minds" while you do this....

 

[hlsmith]

Time is also continuous, so you may need to create some type of threshold for same time, since they will never actually log off at exactly the same time. Also, you would likely need to control for how many times and how long they are logged on. Of note, your question isn't an easy one to answer without multiple assumptions.