NFL postseason probabilities

#1
This is a continuation of thread: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/odds-probabilities.52932/.

With the Patriots being cruelly eliminated from the playoffs, much to the delight of others, at least I have my numbers to watch and provide entertainment.

The nonlinear odds-to-probability derivations for the remaining non-Patriots teams were determined for winning the AFC and NFC Championship from current odds.

Conf.champs,Week.2.jpg

And, assuming that America doesn't miss the Patriots so much in the interim that they invite them back for the Super Bowl, these are the probabilities for the Super Bowl 2020 Championship.

SB.Week.2..2020.jpg

This patented nonlinear odds-to-probs methodology was outlined for a hypothetical two-outcome event in the thread: http://www.talkstats.com/threads/nonlinear-odds-to-probs-conversion.73716/.
 
#4
Another playoff round in the book ... four teams and three games remaining. Here's the projected probabilities...

NFL.SB,Week.3.jpg

See any anomalies? While the model is sound, the market's perception of the future clearly needs to be refined.

Now, back to the numbers ... c'mon, from their Conference Championship odds-to-probs, the implied probability of a Packers/Titans Super Bowl is a measly 1%..?!? (0.107*0.097) Wish I lived in a state with legal sportsbooks ... maybe I'll move when Tom does.

And now for something completely ridiculous...

Brady.team,2020,0-1.jpg
The betting house helpfully notes that odds can be offered for "other teams on request", which would include Cleveland, presumably.
--------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]--------

As PatriotNation turns to patriot ration with the Coronavirus community lockdown, our hero takes a bullet for the country, nay, the world...


Godspeed. Hope to see you in the playoffs.
 
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#5
Just today, I caught a glimpse of the news, and noticed that the NCAA FBS is having their Championship game tonight in New Awlins (or however you're supposed to say it).

Viewers were told that it's a HUGE game for "hometown LSU", and if they win, it could be the "biggest win in LSU football history", wow. Let's take a look at the implied probabilities:

NCAA-LSU,0-1.jpg
Geaux, Tigers!!!

And, presumably, when the Tigers win (either one), drunken bettors will be wandering around the French Quarter, demanding "Show us your chits!"

Laissez les bons temps rouler...
 
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#6
The stage is set for the Big Show, with KC the solid favorite.

SB,0-1.jpg

And, in the interest of completeness/anyone caring, here's the probabilities for the Pro Bowl, which utilizes players that didn't make the Big Show (above).

Pro.Bowl,0-1.jpg

The Pro Bowl is expected to be an evenly-matched affair, with both squads dealing with considerable uncertainty beyond even their helmets' colors and logos.

Pro.Bowl.diversity,0-1.jpg
Go, affiliation-based select-side team!
 
#7
Checked out wazzup in the world of odds the other day, and saw that this thing 'politics' is trending.

Twas a bit surprising, but it seems that America is ready for some Bolshevik action, come Gametime 2020.

Dem.2020,2-24-20.jpg

Whoa .. don't you love it when longshots trend awesome..?!? The whole 'plucky underdog' thing playing out... can't get enough of that Narrative, nor can most Americans.
 
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#8
Just today, I caught a glimpse of the news, and noticed that the NCAA FBS is having their Championship game tonight in New Awlins (or however you're supposed to say it).

Viewers were told that it's a HUGE game for "hometown LSU", and if they win, it could be the "biggest win in LSU football history", wow. Let's take a look at the implied probabilities:


Geaux, Tigers!!!

And, presumably, when the Tigers win (either one), drunken bettors will be wandering around the French Quarter, demanding "Show us your chits!"

Laissez les bons temps rouler...
You are supposed to say every possible syllable, new or-lee-ahn-ss.
 

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#9
Glad to see you are enjoying your odds data. Does Putin self-ascribe to bolshevism - if so Russian interference may seem misguided and unilateral. Perhaps people are questioning how we have the highest GDP, but something like 26M people dont have health insurance and those that do have insurance have outcomes no where near other leading countries. Our babies shouldnt be dying at the rate that they do. Not a polictical comment just pointing toward data. Political data is typically based on monte carlo simulations, how about your american football predictions?
 

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#12
I don't follow football, but I have seen the South Park episode about the 'spice'. Which was fairly funny. Interesting enough I live in a state where betting is legal, but have never contemplated making a wager. The house always wins in the long run. I listened to an interesting piece awhile back how the Massachusetts (I think) state lottery could be beat and they knew it. But they also knew they paid out after the state gots its piece, so even if people could consistent win the lottery the state still generated a revenue of sorts. So dudes at MIT among others started gaming the system.
 
#13
Thanks for invoking South Park ... they certainly understand the nature of monatomic relationships:
...hey, wait ... Bernie/Brady 2020 ... Dream Ticket, bro..!!!

 
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