15 polyps are discovered in a patients large bowel. Each polyp has a 1 percent chance of becoming malignant in 5 years. Collectively, what is the chance that a malignancy will arise in 5 years? I'm assuming it is higher than 1 percent. Help?

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15 polyps are discovered in a patients large bowel. Each polyp has a 1 percent chance of becoming malignant in 5 years. Collectively, what is the chance that a malignancy will arise in 5 years? I'm assuming it is higher than 1 percent. Help?

If there is a 5 percent chance of getting a particular result, and there are 15 of these events taking place simultaneously with the exact same probability, then collectively, what is the chance that one of these events will take place?

For example, if 15 cars of the same make and model, identical in terms of manufacturing, have a 5 percent chance of developing a fuel injection problem within 5 years.. well, what are the chances that one of these 15 cars will have a problem within 5 years? I'm quite sure you dont just add the probabilities up. Any help with this problem would be most welcome.

\(

\begin{tabular}{cc}

\hline

\# Successes & Probability \\

\hline

0 & 0.4633 \\

1 & 0.3658 \\

2 & 0.1348 \\

3 & 0.0307 \\

4 & 0.0049 \\

5 & 0.0006 \\

6 & 0.0000 \\

7 & 0.0000 \\

\hline

\end{tabular}

\)

edit for clarification: if this is indeed a real life case forget the math. polyps turning malignant is far from independent which is assumed in these calculations. I think duskstar got it just right:

If it is real life, then that is a question for a medical professional in my opinion. Statistics needs to have meaning put onto it, by someone who knows the medical area. I wouldn't want to answer that question for you. But, I wish you and your family well.

You would think that since these events are running concurrently, the chances would be increased? For example, Event A has a 5% chance of happening, that is simple to understand. Given 15 identical events (the same set???) with the same probability taking place at the same time,

I should clarify just

I greatly appreciate your prompt responses and am thankful for this forum. I may not be communicating what i'm trying to understand properly here, and unfortunately, i'm barely a novice with this stuff. Tried googling the basic structure of this problem and i understand independent events somewhat, but can't find the basic answer to this problem. Came here as a last resort

You would think that since these events are running concurrently, the chances would be increased? For example, Event A has a 5% chance of happening, that is simple to understand. Given 15 identical events (the same set???) with the same probability taking place at the same time, *are the chances of just one event taking place* increased?