Hi everyone.
Im currently writing my thesis and got advised to compare In-sample vs Out-of-sample prediction. Where R2 out of sample is defined as:
My data set is for 1764 observations (months):
i created sample of my data set:
I tried to run this codes:
And got advised to try this:
However, i'm convinced that there are fundamental issues in coding or statistics, since i get wrong results.
I would really appreciate any help i could receive in solving this issue.
Im currently writing my thesis and got advised to compare In-sample vs Out-of-sample prediction. Where R2 out of sample is defined as:
My data set is for 1764 observations (months):
i created sample of my data set:
Code:
* Example generated by -dataex-. To install: ssc install dataex
dataex return t, count(30)
clear
input double return float t
.01242389 1
.02019115 2
.02964644 3
.03405454 4
.02848361 5
-.01542547 6
-.00863808 7
.01915629 8
.01136751 9
-.05886838 10
.03742423 11
.0257288 12
.02951672 13
.00101633 14
.04072984 15
.03142682 16
-.00213872 17
-.00795212 18
-.00034236 19
-.00761387 20
-.01335902 21
.01832136 22
-.00212152 23
.03346823 24
.01082923 25
.01575765 26
-.01307993 27
-.00878622 28
.01496919 29
-.01535528 30
end
Code:
gen t=_n
tsset t
gen segment = 1
replace segment = 0 if t<883
reg return L.infl L.badtimes if segment ==0
predict forecast if segment == 1
gen returns = return if segment == 1
reg return forecast
Code:
gen t=_n
tsset t
gen segment = (t >883 & t<.)
su return if segment==0
local r_bar=r(mean)
reg return L.lty if segment ==0
predict forecast if segment == 1
predict res if segment == 1,res
g r_rhat_sq=res * res if segment == 1
g r_rbar_sq=(forecast -`r_bar')^2 if segment == 1
su r_rhat_sq
local sumtop=r(sum)
su r_rbar_sq
local sumbot=r(sum)
local rsq=1 - (`sumtop'/`sumbot')
di "`rsq'"I would really appreciate any help i could receive in solving this issue.