Given this happened, what is the probability that the next person I ask will buy something? So that would make it 3 yes, 12 no, 15 total.

Alternatively, what if I ask 14 people, 0 people buy.

What is the probability that the next person I ask will buy given 0/14 have bought currently?

This isn't a homework problem, I work at a marketing agency and am trying to predict online conversions given the fact I already know some data (clicks, conversions) ex: 14 clicked, 2 people converted, 12 didn't.

I'm not sure how to approach this problem because I'm trying to find some calculation given I already know something.

Thanks