seems like odds of getting a hat trick (>=3 goals?) is not going to be independent of number of goals scored. so bascially i don't think theres going to be any way to tell given your data. that 0.05 is marginal, ie computed over all # of goals scored per game. If the probablities were independant, you would just multiply to find the probablity that both occur, but they surely are not, and so further info is needed. keep it crunch.