Probability of an even occuring.

#1
Hi All,

I was after some help please regarding a problem I am trying to solve.

I know the probability of an event occurring is 0.7% (about 1/143). The event is the purchase of a product on my website. However, I wanted to know, what is the probability that no event occurs after 286 visits (2x143)?

Thanks for your help in advance.

Gee
 

Karabiner

TS Contributor
#3
Or could we treat this as a survival analysis problem? The probability of no puchase is 0.993 after the first visitor, it is 0.993*0.993 after the second visitor, 0.993*0.993*0.993 after the third etc., therefore we expect a probability 0.993^286 for no purchase after 286 visits.

With kind regards

Karabiner
 
Last edited:
#4
Or could we treat this as a surival analysis problem? The probability of no puchase is 0.993 after the first visitor, ist is 0.993*0.993 after the second visitor, 0.993*0.993*0.993 after the third etc., therefore we expect a probability 0.993^286 for no purchase after 286 visits.

With kind regards

Karabiner
This is interesting Karabiner. Never thought of it like this. Thanks for the insight.

Many Thanks
Gee
 

Dason

Ambassador to the humans
#5
Yeah for the case of probability it always happens or probability it never happens this is a common way to attack the problem