Probability of staff exiting a company

[Vic1234]

Urgent help required to determine the probability of an employee leaving a company after n number of years employed by the company.
Say the annual turnover rate or employees leaving the company is 22%.
How do I determine the probability of someone who has been employed by the company leaving after 2 years, 3 years, 4 years, 5 years etc.
Is there a way to derive the probability?
Assistance required

 

[Dason]

If that's the only info you have then you would probably need to make some sort of independence assumption. It's probably not reasonable if this is an actual real life problem though.

 

[Vic1234]

Yes, that's all the information.

 

[Dason]

Well if that's all the info you have and assuming this is a hypothetical then I would say you might want to look into the geometric distribution: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geometric_distribution

 

[hlsmith]

You don't have the length of employment for the previous people that weren't retained? Are an assumption about it?

 

[Karabiner]

Is this a real world problem? In which context?

Or, is it a homework problem? For what kind of course? Which knowledge is assumed for this?

With kind regard

Karabiner

 

[Dason]

Honestly with the way it was worded and the information given my assumption is that this is just a homework problem

 

[fed2]

you can make a box-plot of the leaving times

 

[Dason]

you can make a box-plot of the leaving times

With the information given I don't think they can and it wouldn't help answer the question asked.

 

[noetsi]

Cox proportional hazard is the classical way to do this type of thing I think, although you probably don't have enough data to make it work.

 

[fed2]

thats a good idea lets run a box-plot and cox proportional hazards on this homework problem then.

 

[Vic1234]

We do have the average tenure of employees that have not yet left the organisation. for example, those employed for 1 year, those employed for 2 years, 3 years etc

 

[Vic1234]

You don't have the length of employment for the previous people that weren't retained? Are an assumption about it?

We have data for the length of service for the employees that left and those that remained.