type ii error

I read this in Teversky & kahnaman 1974 paper and I dont undertand how the obtained this number
is there anyone who can explain?
thank you

"Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 Apparently, most psychologists have an exsubjects,
and have obtained a significant result
which confirms your theory (z = 2.23, p
< .05, two-tailed). You now have cause to
run an additional group of 10 subjects. What
do you think the probability is that the results
will be significant, by a one-tailed test,
separately for this group?"
If you feel that the probability is somewhere
around .35, you may be pleased to
know that you belong to a majority group.
Indeed, that was the median answer of two
small groups who were kind enough to respond
to a questionnaire distributed at meetings
of the Mathematical Psychology Group
and of the American Psychological Association.
On the other hand, if you feel that the
probability is around .48, you belong to a
minority. Only 9 of our 84 respondents gave
answers between .40 and .60. However, .48
happens to be a much more reasonable estimate
than .85.2


Fortran must die
I think the original number is ANOVA or regression. I suspect the latter number is just a descriptive statistic of a poll.