I read this in Teversky & kahnaman 1974 paper and I dont undertand how the obtained this number

is there anyone who can explain?

thank you

"Suppose you have run an experiment on 20 Apparently, most psychologists have an exsubjects,

and have obtained a significant result

which confirms your theory (z = 2.23, p

< .05, two-tailed). You now have cause to

run an additional group of 10 subjects. What

do you think the probability is that the results

will be significant, by a one-tailed test,

separately for this group?"

If you feel that the probability is somewhere

around .35, you may be pleased to

know that you belong to a majority group.

Indeed, that was the median answer of two

small groups who were kind enough to respond

to a questionnaire distributed at meetings

of the Mathematical Psychology Group

and of the American Psychological Association.

On the other hand, if you feel that the

probability is around .48, you belong to a

minority. Only 9 of our 84 respondents gave

answers between .40 and .60. However, .48

happens to be a much more reasonable estimate

than .85.2

1