Very simple financial model.


Fortran must die
This is really basic math, I am asking because it goes to my boss's boss's boss and I don't want to get it wrong.

I have 5 months of data we projected for this year and the actual results for those five months. I wanted to adjust the yearly projections (that is the 5 months plus 7 more months) for what we have found so far. So I divided the actual results for the 5 months by the projected numbers for those months. Then I multiplied this ratio times the total projected for a year to get a total (adjusted) projected for the year. The logic here is that ratio between actual and projected for the first five months would stay the same through the year. Assuming the logic is correct does this way of adjusting the projections for the actual to date make sense?

I then had to project how much we would spend next year (we have 7 more months in this year, this is estimating spending 8 through 19 months from now). I calculated a percent increase as (the revised projections for this year - last years known numbers)/last years known numbers. This gives a percent increase from last year (which is known) through the end of this year. I then multiplied 1+ this percent by the projected yearly numbers for this year to get the projected numbers for next year.

Does that make any sense :p