More meta-data for analysis comes our way … so while the cellphone call-volume suspiciously dropped at a Wuhan virology research lab late last year (see earlier links, above), Wuhan hospitals' parking-lot traffic and internet searches for intestinal disorders went way up.
The CCP's commitment to transparency in sharing these 'warnings' about the Beijing outbreak seems almost overdone, as these non stop drip-drip headlines hammer US stocks. It's almost as if they're saying these things solely to hammer the US market (what's the point of announcing these measures when it's the middle of the night in China?).
An CBS News article on the Beijing outbreak (6/16) helpfully notes that Tokyo -- with a population of 37 million in its urban area -- is also having a COVID-19 resurgence ... adding a massive 20+ cases/day. Their bottom-line conclusion, for those who are missing the message:
The surges in two of Asia's biggest capitals serve as a clear warning to America and all other countries: reopening risks reinfection.
Turchin characterizes human history in 60-year cycles of order and disorder … the 1960s were an unrest peak, and alas now we have arrived at...
2020 (6/1). The incidents of riots and anti-government demonstrations are charted below for the US and Europe.
Since his recent told-you-so column on 2020 (above), Turchin has issued an explanation of his methodology -- The Science behind My Forecast for 2020 (6/15) – which includes the following chart for the US from 1955-2020 with his custom metric:
At any time, there are many, many prognoses about any type
of upcoming crisis, e.g. economic crash, violent conflicts, epidemics etc.
After a crisis has happened, the one correct out of 3416 prognoses is
picked up and some people inevtiably say "see, Professor XY told you
so before" (and if Prof. XY is clever, he will make a living from his
supposedly magical precognition, introduced where ever he appears
as "this is the man who predicted the crash of 2008" or something like that).
Personally, I would have been interested in that stuff if you had cited it last
year, in order to point predict what will be happening 2020.
Despite my being a fan of Turchin since his 2013 prognoses on his 60-year order-disorder cycle, this material wasn't applicable/relevant, until our pandemic lockdown recently transitioned into social-justice pandemonium.
That said, Turchin wascited earlier in this thread, commenting on the impact of COVID-19 on the US, before the pandemonium started...
Turchin had already noted The Strange Disappearance of Cooperation in America (2013), with the decline of 'social capital'. He argues that "general well-being (and high levels of social cooperation) tends to move in the opposite direction from [income] inequality".
For more perspective on Turchin’s broad cliodynamic theories, his book War and Peace and War (2006, the title a wry reference to the cycles of human history) maintains that asabiya – the Arabic term for social cohesiveness and capacity for collective action – is critical for a successful society.