WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

Its interesting to think that violence is sort of infective like virus, another way of man bringing misery on man.

I read Cicero was a pompous a-hole. Catiline, now theres a hero. 'How long will you go on testing our patience, oh Catiline'?
Whooooa ... your gravitas is off-the-charts. Thx...
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Where who knew what when … does that explain why on this tangential cellphone meta-evidence of a Wuhan lab going dark in the months leading to the pandemic (5/8)? So much uncertainty to sift through...
More meta-data for analysis comes our way … so while the cellphone call-volume suspiciously dropped at a Wuhan virology research lab late last year (see earlier links, above), Wuhan hospitals' parking-lot traffic and internet searches for intestinal disorders went way up.

Satellite images of Wuhan may suggest that Coronavirus was spreading as early as August (6/8, Guardian paywall; also here and here, with a comprehensive Good Morning America video). By taking the miles-high perspective of analyzing the number of cars parked at Wuhan hospitals and Baidu searches of symptoms in that region, Harvard Medical School theorizes that the COVID-19 outbreak could have happened months earlier than was claimed.


Predictably, China’s foreign ministry rejected the not-yet-peer-reviewed study, calling it “extremely absurd” ... perhaps, but not nearly in the league of this whopper: the claimed Chinese COVID-19 death toll.

--------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]-------

Pandemic to pandemonium to … [REPEAT?]

Here’s an odd HERE-WE-GO-AGAIN datapoint, from the source of this 'topic': Yet another potential Coronavirus pandemic threat has popped up at a Chinese wholesale-food market (6/16) -- allegedly caused by infected salmon, imported from Europe (6/15) -- and this has become a top news item in the US. Although the number of infected Chinese is relatively low (106, so far) in comparison to the ongoing caseloads in the West (millions), for some reason, the Chinese uptick is now the more newsworthy. [Drudge milks it below.]


Perhaps the upside here is that China is reporting outbreaks early..?!? Then again, as a (thorough) cynic mulls the Chinese Communist Party's suspiciously-timed announcements (6/16):

The CCP's commitment to transparency in sharing these 'warnings' about the Beijing outbreak seems almost overdone, as these non stop drip-drip headlines hammer US stocks. It's almost as if they're saying these things solely to hammer the US market (what's the point of announcing these measures when it's the middle of the night in China?).

An CBS News article on the Beijing outbreak (6/16) helpfully notes that Tokyo -- with a population of 37 million in its urban area -- is also having a COVID-19 resurgence ... adding a massive 20+ cases/day. Their bottom-line conclusion, for those who are missing the message:

The surges in two of Asia's biggest capitals serve as a clear warning to America and all other countries: reopening risks reinfection.
On the reopening of the government-mandated lockdown ... essential exceptions will be made, of course (6/16).

--------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]-------

Uh oh ... now we find out that the World Health Organization first heard of the Wuhan outbreak from a US website, rather than directly from China (7/2), as was earlier claimed.
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The ongoing societal turbulence from the nexus of pandemic, pandemonium, etc was accurately predicted by Dr Peter Turchin, a UConn professor (6/16) who teaches cultural evolution. Turchin theorizes that overproduction of (troublemaking) elites is the primary cause of the rise of the dissatisfied All Other oppressed (both links from 2013, when turbulence was on the upswing) ... looks like this is yet another monatomic zero-sum relationship.

Turchin characterizes human history in 60-year cycles of order and disorder … the 1960s were an unrest peak, and alas now we have arrived at...

2020 (6/1).
The incidents of riots and anti-government demonstrations are charted below for the US and Europe.

Since his recent told-you-so column on 2020 (above), Turchin has issued an explanation of his methodology -- The Science behind My Forecast for 2020 (6/15) – which includes the following chart for the US from 1955-2020 with his custom metric:

Political Stress Indicator (PSI … under pressure, indeed) .

Oddly, the 1960s is shown as pretty tranquil. Also, it seems that this chart has an inflection point around the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal
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TS Contributor
Hey, ex post rulez ok.

At any time, there are many, many prognoses about any type
of upcoming crisis, e.g. economic crash, violent conflicts, epidemics etc.
After a crisis has happened, the one correct out of 3416 prognoses is
picked up and some people inevtiably say "see, Professor XY told you
so before" (and if Prof. XY is clever, he will make a living from his
supposedly magical precognition, introduced where ever he appears
as "this is the man who predicted the crash of 2008" or something like that).

Personally, I would have been interested in that stuff if you had cited it last
year, in order to point predict what will be happening 2020.

With kind regards

Personally, I would have been interested in that stuff if you had cited it last
year, in order to point predict what will be happening 2020.
Despite my being a fan of Turchin since his 2013 prognoses on his 60-year order-disorder cycle, this material wasn't applicable/relevant, until our pandemic lockdown recently transitioned into social-justice pandemonium.

That said, Turchin was cited earlier in this thread, commenting on the impact of COVID-19 on the US, before the pandemonium started...
The leading cliodynamist, who sees world history in unit-metrics of centuries, has a gloomy outlook on the impact of COVID-19 on the US, well beyond the eventual death toll (4/20). Back in 2013, this historian had (way too) accurately forecast our present social turbulence: Blame Rich, Overeducated Elites as Society Frays (reprint, not behind Bloomberg paywall).
Guess we'll need to wait until 2080 to see if Turchin can truly take a victory lap on his cliodynamic theory.

--------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]-------

Here’s an earlier thorough statistical overview by Turchin on the ‘Impending Crisis’ (c.2008; lots of relevant charts, data going back to 1780) ... of course, the crisis is now no longer pending. From the probability/prediction standpoint, Turchin has noted that, historically, social upheaval can lead to civil war, and this 2020 turbulence could possibly lead in that unfortunate direction (6/17, and here).

Turchin had already noted The Strange Disappearance of Cooperation in America (2013), with the decline of 'social capital'. He argues that "general well-being (and high levels of social cooperation) tends to move in the opposite direction from [income] inequality".

For more perspective on Turchin’s broad cliodynamic theories, his book War and Peace and War (2006, the title a wry reference to the cycles of human history) maintains that asabiya – the Arabic term for social cohesiveness and capacity for collective action – is critical for a successful society.
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