Recent content by Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

With his debate success (see above), Joe Biden now leads in RCP Average probability: Biden at 58.0% and Trump at 42.0% (9/30; as noted earlier, the RCP Average uses linear odds-to-probs conversion, which understates the probability of the favorite, as the odds diverge from ‘even’). With...

Your call, of course, but check out this odd probability action... Biden has almost an 80% chance of winning the first Presidential Debate... ...with the 'winner' being determined by a 'CNN Snap Poll'. Talk about layered uncertainty ... which at this point shouldn't surprise anyone, I...

With a history of inciting rage, derangement, and violence, the divisive President and his supporters need to be ruthlessly crushed by the GloboCap/Biden juggernaut. The War on Populism: the Final Act (9/20) ... History repeating itself? Mother Russia’s turbulent times, 1900-1917: Suicide...

Can’t argue there … even abstractions like public opinions are changing dramatically, as your time series continues to work. Gallup recently polled Americans on their viewpoints on a wide range of industries in 2020 (9/8), tracking the percentages of favorable, neutral or unfavorable opinions...

As bourgeois democracy has got to go, and “Donald Trump can only be an intolerable glitch in the screen” of their master plan ... left-leaning wealthy folks preferring Global Governance organized the Transition Integrity Project (TIP, 8/28), playing simulated ‘war games’ of four election...

Despite promising benevolent policy for Americans’ own good – such as weighing in on the side of prudence in our ongoing mask debate -- Biden continues slidin’ in odds-implied probability, and the Democratic and Republicans Parties are now deadlocked in the Election 2020 race for the White...

On the unfathomable ‘unknowableness’ of our strange new world … Are You Ready for the “No One Could Have Known” Routine? (8/22) Par for the course in 2020... Unknowableness also applies to our political process. Luckily, we have proven-reliable avenues to mitigate unknowableness, with the...

...yes, probably.

This certainly sounds like rational Coronavirus analysis: Governments Are Faking It, and Copying Each Other (8/20). Pondering the risks of reopening the economy, schools, events, travel... It will be interesting to see how our wise global elite unwind this ‘Kabuki theater’ (8/11) of...

Sorry if this thread stirs emotions, with its overall way-badness. It's just kinda hard to find goodness in this global pandemic ... then resultant societal lockdown and, with it, economic collapse ... then widespread violent pandemonium ... then [who-tf knows what's next]... --------[ WAIT...

** BINGO ** The nuance between dying with, and dying from, COVID-19 makes all the difference in clouding the official check-marked fatality data … right, Dr Birx? (early April press conference, where she outlines the difference between US official policy and that of other countries). Also...

Your doubts have merit in a general sense, but at least some folks like the intrepid cliodynamist, Dr Turchin, take a crack at the 'Big Picture' (see earlier post). And let's not forget that making projections about the future are part of the essence of being human. As is socializing, although...

While the concept of ‘Life’ is indeed binary -- in the classic ON/OFF sense -- the more nuanced concept of time in biology is a meaningful metric to understand and monitor the impact of novel forces on an organism’s population and environment. In the animal realm, this applies from mayflies to...

This is a continuation of post… Finally, we have detailed thorough academic rational analyses -- by Imperial College London* -- on the overall impact of the COVID-19 shutdown (7/17, PDF): Conclusion – lockdown has been massively costly and benefits [are] unlikely to have matched [the cost]...

A Nobel-winning economist suggests that ‘Narrative epidemics’ now drive the wacky valuation of equities: Understanding the Pandemic Stock Market (7/7). Markets no longer react to the news, instead react to the reaction to the news. This could lead one to ponder: Cui bono? …the 0.001% is...