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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    A Nobel-winning economist suggests that ‘Narrative epidemics’ now drive the wacky valuation of equities: Understanding the Pandemic Stock Market (7/7). Markets no longer react to the news, instead react to the reaction to the news. This could lead one to ponder: Cui bono? In...
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    Election 2020

    This is a continuation of thread: Nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion Drudge links to an odds-implied probability study (7/1) that utilizes the conventional linear odds-to-probs conversion, where each candidate’s American-format odds are used to estimate their probability independently, and...
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    Election 2020

    The Biden campaign's ground-breaking subterranean strategy -- facilitating the avoidance of tough questions (6/26) -- extends his party's lead in odds-implied probability, doubling the President's, for Election 2020. What an ironic twist history holds on the origins of the Democratic and...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Despite my being a fan of Turchin since his 2013 prognoses on his 60-year order-disorder cycle, this material wasn't applicable/relevant, until our pandemic lockdown recently transitioned into social-justice pandemonium. That said, Turchin was cited earlier in this thread, commenting on the...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    The ongoing societal turbulence from the nexus of pandemic, pandemonium, etc was accurately predicted by Dr Peter Turchin, a UConn professor (6/16) who teaches cultural evolution. Turchin theorizes that overproduction of (troublemaking) elites is the primary cause of the rise of the...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    More meta-data for analysis comes our way … so while the cellphone call-volume suspiciously dropped at a Wuhan virology research lab late last year (see earlier links, above), Wuhan hospitals' parking-lot traffic and internet searches for intestinal disorders went way up. Satellite images of...
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    Election 2020

    With nationwide chaos raging, it seems that Joe Biden's vast skillset and experience are just the ticket to lead us forward: Joe takes a solid lead over the Bible-toting incumbent in the latest odds. -- By party -- Joe broke quarantine and emerged from his Delaware basement, crossing...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Whooooa ... your gravitas is off-the-charts. Thx...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Statistics ... probability ... uncertainty ... mayhem CHAOS. “Never let a crisis go to waste”…? (3/24) WARNING: *CRAZY CONSPIRACY ALERT* ...but… if the tin-foil hat fits, wear it. Oddly-descriptive vanity plate ... photo-ready? Have we gone from PLANdemic to PLANdemonium..?!? (5/29) If...
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    Election 2020

    The VP odds -- and their implied probabilities -- from above haven’t budge much (click on Dem VP nomination) … so there remains a whopping 98% probability that Biden picks a woman as his running mate. It's nice to have some certainty in our lives these days!
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    Election 2020

    During these turbulent times, Joe Biden's campaign-in-place strategy is working its magic, and he's now again neck-and-neck with President Trump.
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Looks like Coronavirus rationality is all the rage these days, even with CDC's Dr Fauci (5/22)… The former director of Israel’s Health Ministry, on the hysteria around Covid-19: ‘Nothing can justify this destruction of people’s lives’ (5/22). A doctor with the Hoover Institute estimates that...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    I suppose that's one of the 'charms' of the lockdown ... the open road. The lives being saved by the lower incidence of MVC fatalities should be factored into the analysis. Unfortunately though, MVC fatalities are even higher in some non-urban areas than comparable years (4/29, WSJ paywall)...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    On the factual front ... it's technically a bar chart, not a graph. --------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------- Peggy Noonan delineates the class divide in the Wall Street Journal between a) those with safe lives forcing the lockdown, and b) those with unsafe lives potentially ruined by the...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    YEARS OF POTENTIAL LIFE LOST ... the ultimate metric in rational coronavirus analysis As Winston Churchill allegedly quipped: Keep experts on tap, not on top. The Wall Street Journal runs commentary (5/14, behind WSJ paywall) on how the good Dr. Fauci’s expertise is narrow, and that he’s...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    (Hopefully, these studies meet your control/parameter standards.) Here’s a comprehensive Wall Street Journal study (4/26, behind capitalist paywall) looking at relative death rates versus how quickly economies were shutdown in that New-York-minute due to COVID-19, using both European countries...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    [This video was banned from YouTube as it was deemed “medically unsubstantiated .. misinformation” and “would go against World Health Organization recommendations”. It can still be viewed here, where a transcript is also provided.] Thanks for sharing the video, even with their apparent flawed...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Can any conclusions be drawn from these studies, other than the (admittedly laymen's) viewpoint that it appears that the data is a confusing mess..? Which actually would explain a lot, if our leaders are taking counsel from experts deriving their theories from this data and its analysis.
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Another excellent point ... I may have been flippant in the use of the term "flip-side", which perhaps suggests a monatomic relationship. Then again, maybe not -- so much meta-uncertainty! -- since not understanding the probability, whether empirically derived or odds-implied, is definitely a...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    The uncertainty is not in the data, it's in the whether the proper data analysis is applied, and then how it's applied, in portraying information and making decisions that lead to long-term widespread consequences. For instance, does a national news outlet -- say, the NY Times or CNN -- portray...