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    Election 2020

    Perhaps the mystery has been accepted. Thanks for the thoughtful commentary. Historical precedents in the US have limited applicability nowadays since the fundamental dynamics have changed so much over the years. Government spending -- and hence control over the US economy -- is now much...
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    Election 2020

    …accept the mystery. Other mysteries include: That a constitutional government and their corporate supporters would concern themselves with verifying ideas ... but NOT votes (12/9), since "ideas are not a legitimate function of government. Governments serve the people through [fair]...
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    Election 2020

    ...which might lead an impartial observer to wonder “Are Americans rational?” (11/30)
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    Election 2020

    Election 2024: Just when you thought it was safe to go back in the water... Biden and Harris have a combined probability of 17.5% in Election 2024, while Trump, his kids, and Pence combine to 12.7% (from Betfair). Only those potential candidates breaking 1.0% probability are listed. The...
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    Election 2020

    From Dr Anna Nahmally's files... A veteran pollster notes that in Election 2020, “Biden underperformed Hillary Clinton [in 2016] in every major metro area around the country, save for Milwaukee, Detroit, Atlanta and Philadelphia [see previous post] ... Robert Barnes, the foremost election...
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    Election 2020

    I challenge you to show that correlation proves causation … between a) the UK total-population voting percentage in 2019, factoring in the age 0-18 demographic, and b) the extent of the (non)massiveness of Postal Voting fraud in Texas. But thanks for providing the above data table, which could...
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    Election 2020

    Since the American media ‘called’ the race for Biden, the conventional betting markets on Election 2020 have been shut down, probably for Reasons, and good ones at that. However, PredictIt keeps the flame alive, with their cents-pricing of the possible outcomes, including Election 2020. Of...
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    Election 2020

    With Election 2020 being 'called' for Biden (11/7), in a race he "made about character", perhaps Benford's Law and associated statistics-and-probability theorems and methodology need to be under lockdown until further notice ... as this type of credible number-theory study meaningless drivel...
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    Election 2020

    WANTED: Statistical Integrity (Elections-Have-Consequences Category) It’s safe to assume that a fair number of TalkStats members are highly-trained statisticians, and perhaps practice the art/science vocationally, maybe even in the political realm, and so may be able to offer some...
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    Election 2020

    CIVIL WAR II ... what are the odds? A leading cliodynamist -- with an excellent track record with data-based predictions – playfully posits himself as an alien from Alpha Centauri for the ultimate nonpartisan perspective in this structural demographic view of our “post-truth world” (11/1)...
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    Election 2020

    Apparently, the ‘Iowa Poll’ of 814 likely voters has longstanding national significance as a bellwether, and Trump now has an edge for the first time since March: 48% for Trump vs 41% for Biden (see below, 10/31; more here). Support for the former VP is seen as ‘fading’, which is a bad look so...
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    Election 2020

    Will the nonpolitical Silent Majority pop up, and pipe up on Election Day? (10/28) Back in 2016, Did Not Vote won in a landslide... Nonpolitical 4D-Coalition? Bikers and buggies, rappers and golfers… -----------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]------------ At the very least, we're looking at...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    WANTED: A Medical Community with Average Performance Dr Fauci and the CDC stand by the official US COVID toll … which would mean that Americans are dying from the disease at a rate more than 5X that of the rest of the world. In population-per-COVID-death (10/26): United States (328M/231K) =...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Progressive elite as Nero, an alleged arsonist: The Myth of ‘Build Back Better’ (10/26). But, at least Nero had a solid (pre-existing!) rebuilding plan and made it happen, capped with an immense bronze statue of himself. Today’s globalist elites’ core-competencies are more along the lines of...
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    Election 2020

    WANTED: Nonpartisan Election 2020 Metric How about ‘time’? Time doesn't generally stir partisan-bias, applies equally for everyone, including both sides of the political aisle, and can't be manipulated. Let’s look at when Election 2020 will be ‘called’, perhaps within the margin-of-lawyer...
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    Election 2020

    Government is the great fiction, through which everybody endeavors to live at the expense of everybody else. -- Frédéric Bastiat (1801-1850) Some people work for a living, while others vote for a living. -- Anonymous You say you want a revolution..?!? Well, this Brit says we can't pull...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    This is a continuation of post (scroll down)… Oh, there he is … no, wait … over there… Here’s a retrospective critique of Sweden’s casual response to the pandemic (10/6): ‘It’s been so, so surreal.’ Critics of Sweden’s lax pandemic policies face fierce backlash. In an inversion of the...
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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    This is a continuation of post (scroll down). hysteria [noun]: a highly-communicable affliction, transmitted by the airwaves, when this metric explodes in the epicenter of American media … the (self-proclaimed) Greatest City on Earth. Seen the lights go out on Broadway … too bad they couldn't...
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    Election 2020

    European gamblers have ‘bet the farm’ on Biden (10/12; Euro-bias = faulty data?). Oddschecker’s composite linear odds-implied probabilities appear below, chronicling the improbable incredible rise of the Joe Juggernaut… …Oddschecker notes that “odds say Biden is now over twice as likely as...
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    Election 2020

    THAT CERTAINLY DIDN'T TAKE LONG Category (Part 1): Just a few weeks ago, the Department of Homeland Security declared that ‘white supremacists’ are the biggest domestic terrorist threat. Well, through “the efforts of more than 200 state and federal law enforcement officials”, we finally can see...