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    WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

    Continuation of thread… The overuse of percentages by our wise ruling class and media to convey critical information may be hindering understanding, and therefore a rational response to the Coronavirus pandemic. Lots of figures are being thrown about, practically all on a percentage basis, not...
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    Election 2020

    This is a continuation of thread... With South Carolina in the books -- for Biden, big-time -- and Super Tuesday on deck, let's revisit the implied probabilities: Good ol' Joe has made a significant gain in implied probability -- up 5X since we last checked -- but Bernie remains the heavy...
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    NFL postseason probabilities

    This is a continuation of thread… With the Patriots being cruelly eliminated from the playoffs, much to the delight of others, at least I have my numbers to watch and provide entertainment. The nonlinear odds-to-probability derivations for the remaining non-Patriots teams were determined for...
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    Let's play ... "Guess the y-axis!"

    A financial-services company needs to understand its risk in underwriting obligations that have considerable uncertainty, often gyrating between zero and 100% projected probability of occurrence (0.00-1.00). The company assembles a team of industry experts to determine if they are well-hedged...
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    Nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion

    The New England Patriots are playing the Buffalo Bills. The fractional odds are Patriots 1/2 and the Bills 2/1, where a bet on the Patriots risks $2 to win $1, and a bet on the Bills risks $1 to win $2. A rational bettor has $1 to bet. A $1 wager on the favorite Patriots yields a $0.50 profit...
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    Simultaneous convoluted linear equations

    While doing an odds-to-probability derivation, I came upon an interesting relationship between x and y in a pair of simultaneous equations. Care to solve for x and y..? Hint: This avenue ended up being a dead-end, derivation-wise. Thanks, NLZS