Search results

  1. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    So what I "think" I would like to do is represent on a graph... Y axis - Likelihood (Time) X axis - Consequences (Outcome) So The risk rating data points on the X axis graph I would be assigned something like this.... First Aid - 0-10 FA - 11-20 FA - 21-30 Medical Treatment - 31-40 MT - 41-50...
  2. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Hey guys I am back! I have been having a play an I have hit a hurdle that I don't know how to address. That tool you provided @katxt it is great and I have started to build a formula but im not sure if im over thinking things or what... For simplicity sake this is what I am trying to do...
  3. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    So can you have a negative SD? or just that the SD will push a number into negative
  4. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    I made it up, but now that I see that image i assume it's only correct in a specific instance... What I should have said was... If my mean was 100 and my SD is 50 then it would be 50 to 150?
  5. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Ok so if my mean is 100 my SD would be 50 to 150? And is the approx 68% a fixed thing? Yea does it make a change in MC?
  6. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Ok great! So standard deviation. Can you explain it like you are talking to a 6 yr old? Because yea.... how does that work... asking for a friend
  7. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Is there anything I would need to consider when I am using the "triangle" to model my ignorance if the deviations are not equal? e.g. 10 / 20 / 60
  8. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Awesome, So is there a best practice way of doing that? like do you keep all "known" variables out of the simulation process and apply them after or do you run simulation with all of the variables?
  9. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Too smart! You are great thanks for all your help! I will go away and play with that tool with some phony data to see if I can get the hang of things! M
  10. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Ok That makes sense now. When you say suitable distributions what does that mean?
  11. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Hey, Ok so maybe I am thinking about this from the wrong point... So using what you said I want to calculate the probability of those "outcomes" and they are uncertain... I need to think about the precursors to the output and look at those values/uncertainties? fake stats but for e.g...
  12. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    So monte carlo is only validating things that are already known or suspected? So lets say I examined the company data and it showed that 97% of vehicle incidents result in first aid 2% Temp 0.3% Perm 0.7% Fatality If I ran monte carlo would it just spit out those same figures? or is there...
  13. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Ok so if I wanted to figure out the probability of each of the different "outcomes" I would need to assign some range of values Low, Likely, High First aid - 100, 300, 1000 Temp Disability - 2000, 20000, 500000 Perm Disability - 200000, 500000, 5000000 Fatality - 750000, 3000000, 15000000...
  14. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    I think I am slowly getting closer to understanding what I need... Let me know if I am understanding... I am dealing with non-numerical variables for the most part, so with my above scenario of a motor vehicle accident if I assign a number to a value would I then run the simulation to see the...
  15. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    The call me quick shooter... I dont know why... Thanks for that!
  16. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Yes please! Can you attach it here or would you need email address? M
  17. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Hey, So I can source some data as I mentioned in my original post, but that is part of my question is what data or variables would I need to say produce the probabilities of those incident outcomes? death, serious injury etc... Some of my "data" will blur the lines of objective and...
  18. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Hey, Sorry maybe I didn't explain things well enough... when you manage risk it's not good enough to provide simplified information because the leadership needs to understand as many scenarios as possible to make decisions. For example. In many places where they are managing risk in a...
  19. M

    Hello all - need some help!

    Hey everyone. I never would have thought I would be in a statistical forum before, but in the search for answers here I am! Why I am here... I work in the field of Risk, specifically safety risk. I have found that when I am trying to present risk to those who need to understand and make...