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So what I "think" I would like to do is represent on a graph... Y axis - Likelihood (Time) X axis - Consequences (Outcome) So The risk rating data points on the X axis graph I would be assigned something like this.... First Aid - 0-10 FA - 11-20 FA - 21-30 Medical Treatment - 31-40 MT - 41-50...

Hey guys I am back! I have been having a play an I have hit a hurdle that I don't know how to address. That tool you provided @katxt it is great and I have started to build a formula but im not sure if im over thinking things or what... For simplicity sake this is what I am trying to do...

So can you have a negative SD? or just that the SD will push a number into negative

I made it up, but now that I see that image i assume it's only correct in a specific instance... What I should have said was... If my mean was 100 and my SD is 50 then it would be 50 to 150?

Ok so if my mean is 100 my SD would be 50 to 150? And is the approx 68% a fixed thing? Yea does it make a change in MC?

Ok great! So standard deviation. Can you explain it like you are talking to a 6 yr old? Because yea.... how does that work... asking for a friend

Is there anything I would need to consider when I am using the "triangle" to model my ignorance if the deviations are not equal? e.g. 10 / 20 / 60

Awesome, So is there a best practice way of doing that? like do you keep all "known" variables out of the simulation process and apply them after or do you run simulation with all of the variables?

Too smart! You are great thanks for all your help! I will go away and play with that tool with some phony data to see if I can get the hang of things! M

Ok That makes sense now. When you say suitable distributions what does that mean?

Hey, Ok so maybe I am thinking about this from the wrong point... So using what you said I want to calculate the probability of those "outcomes" and they are uncertain... I need to think about the precursors to the output and look at those values/uncertainties? fake stats but for e.g...

So monte carlo is only validating things that are already known or suspected? So lets say I examined the company data and it showed that 97% of vehicle incidents result in first aid 2% Temp 0.3% Perm 0.7% Fatality If I ran monte carlo would it just spit out those same figures? or is there...

Ok so if I wanted to figure out the probability of each of the different "outcomes" I would need to assign some range of values Low, Likely, High First aid - 100, 300, 1000 Temp Disability - 2000, 20000, 500000 Perm Disability - 200000, 500000, 5000000 Fatality - 750000, 3000000, 15000000...

I think I am slowly getting closer to understanding what I need... Let me know if I am understanding... I am dealing with non-numerical variables for the most part, so with my above scenario of a motor vehicle accident if I assign a number to a value would I then run the simulation to see the...

The call me quick shooter... I dont know why... Thanks for that!

Yes please! Can you attach it here or would you need email address? M

Hey, So I can source some data as I mentioned in my original post, but that is part of my question is what data or variables would I need to say produce the probabilities of those incident outcomes? death, serious injury etc... Some of my "data" will blur the lines of objective and...

Hey, Sorry maybe I didn't explain things well enough... when you manage risk it's not good enough to provide simplified information because the leadership needs to understand as many scenarios as possible to make decisions. For example. In many places where they are managing risk in a...

Hey everyone. I never would have thought I would be in a statistical forum before, but in the search for answers here I am! Why I am here... I work in the field of Risk, specifically safety risk. I have found that when I am trying to present risk to those who need to understand and make...