probability

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    Probability given an occurrence rate (small airplane fatal accidents)

    Hi All, I would like to know if the method I’m using to calculate a probability based on an occurrence rate is correct or if there is a better method to use. Here is some context to give you an idea of what I’m working with: I am looking at determining the probability of a fatal accident...
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    Sports outcome probability

    Hello! Here is the scenario I have: In ice hockey, team A is ahead at the end of the 2nd period (they have games of 3 periods for those who do not know). When team A is ahead at this point in the game, they go on to win 75% of the time. When team B is losing at the end of the 2nd period, as they...
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    Multi-roll, 12 sided die outcomes (used brute force 725,000 die rolls)

    I have forgotten my grad school probability and need some help with the following. I am trying to create a .xls that I can use to look at the odds of multiple dice throws. Quantity of dice = 10 (n) # of sides per dice = 20 (s) Each dice has the following colors instead of numbers: 4 Yellow...
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    How do you put a Distribution in a Risk Analysis?

    In conducting a Probability Risk Analysis or statistical risk Analysis, for example over the actions of nature for a particular period of time and for a particular geographical location, one is expected to put a distribution over all the actions of nature and choose the action that maximizes...
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    Probability Over 2 Sequences Of Trials

    Hey everyone! I'm coding a program that identifies appearances of a lowercase "x" in a base64 encoded string. Like the following: DWADCrxV+PhR4zxkQrIMUtarkN11aitHI8DEnzyG19CD... I know the probability of finding at least one "x" in a sequence of 10 chars. My doubt is about dealing with...
  6. S

    Probability of Vehicles and Pedestrians meeting

    Hi, I need to produce a probability for a vehicle and a pedestrian meeting along a 1km road. Here is what I know: •1km road •cars take 3 minutes to travel •pedestrians take 12 minutes to travel •30 cars an hour •20 pedestrians an hour The cars and pedestrians may also be grouped or evening...
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    Quality Control/Probability Problem

    A production engineer has designed a system to remove sugars from a liquid product. Each product must contain an amount of sugar less than or equal to 12g. The engineer randomly samples 3 products and finds the sugar contents to be 4.5, 3.7, and 3.2g respectively. The sample mean is 3.8g and the...
  8. J

    Proability of failure

    Hello, I have a date set (n=150) with 2 variables: contract value ($) and a binary variables success/failures that indicate whether the contract was completed without problems. I want to know, for a given contract value, the probability of failure. I decided to create a basic histogram with my...
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    Nonlinear odds-to-probs conversion

    The New England Patriots are playing the Buffalo Bills. The fractional odds are Patriots 1/2 and the Bills 2/1, where a bet on the Patriots risks $2 to win $1, and a bet on the Bills risks $1 to win $2. A rational bettor has $1 to bet. A $1 wager on the favorite Patriots yields a $0.50 profit...
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    Card picking dependant probability without replacement - P(6,6,Red)

    Hi All, I'm trying to teach myself statistics online @ khan academy and although its a wonderful resource I have no one to turn to for help when I don't understand. I hope someone here might be able to give me some advice. I've made some questions up myself to try and work out the answer and...
  11. M

    Leave-one-out error strictly decreasing when number of parameters is increased, when it should not be?

    People may or may not be able to help intuitively shed light on my problem. Maybe I haven't considered some aspects. I'm running a non-parametric (kernel) regularized least squares estimation on some binary training data to then predict probabilistic values for the non-training data. I have 9...
  12. T

    Binomial Probability of Remaining Trials at a different X value

    I am trying to find the binomial probability of the remaining trials in a binomial probability at a different probability of success on the leftover trials. My example: Number of Trials 6 Number of Successes 2 Prob of success on one trial: 75.8% Binomial probability output: 2.95% Out of my...
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    Probability 2-vector probability

    Can someone help me to answer the third question please.
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    Calculate propability of certain outcome

    So I have a question, these statistics lessons have been such a long time that I'm not sure how to calculate the following: Say that there is a new disease, and I have a test that is 100% reliable. I have tested 100 people, and have found that 3 people got the disease. So from now on this is...
  16. C

    How to get amount to pay in order to be fair

    If a man purchases a raffle ticket, he can win a first price of $50,000 or a second price of $20, 000 with probabilities 0.001 and 0.003. What should be a fair price to pay for the ticket?
  17. U

    Concept of Stationary Population in Demography.

    The definition of stationary population is: "The stationary population is a model without immigration or emigration in which the same age-specific probabilities of death apply continuously and in which there are the same number of births and deaths each year." Can anyone please explain me...
  18. J

    Relationship between events

    I've come across this exercise. There has been a research on free time activities, which has the following findings: 55% of people that are under 50 years old run regularly (three times per week), whereas only 35% of people who are over 50 run regularly. Assume that 60% of people are under 50...
  19. B

    probability -please help ;(

    Hi! I am trying to do this tasks but can't think of any way to solve this, reading my notes doesn't help at all:/ I've done what I could in ex.3 and started ex.4. I will appreciate help with any task!
  20. S

    Finding probability with a sample size and no SD or mean

    I have a problem dealing with finding a desired percentage and I'm only familiar with finding these kinds of probabilities with a standard deviation and sample mean present. I believe I need to utilize the Z-scores to find this probability but I'm not sure how to get started. Any guidance to get...