probability

  1. S

    Game Probability Question

    Hi, I am playing a game. I win with an 88% chance and lose with 12% probability. If I have won 20 games in a row what is the probabilty that I will lose the next game. If you can figure out the answer and provide also the calculation logic that would be great. Thanks B
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    Gage R&R results to usable data

    This is for my thesis & i'm stumped. Please help. A Gage R&R was done comparing two inspection tools to each other. These tools measure the section modulus of wood, which is used to calculate the SI and whether or not we replace the wood. The measurements using the tools were normalize, that...
  3. R

    Calculation of expected values for chi-squared test

    Folks I need to work out the probability that a set of survey results occurred by chance, and I intend to use a chi-squared test. However, I haven't studied mathematics formally since I was 16, and I need someone to confirm whether my calculations of expected values are accurate and, if not...
  4. M

    Probability of more than 5 responses surveying two locations with different response

    You are looking for people between 16 to 23 years to answer a survey. Assume houses on First Street, based on copious amounts of empty beer bottles in front yards and your past experience, has a chance of yielding 16 to 23 year olds to answer your survey of 20% per house. Houses on Second...
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    Bayes' formula question help

    One percent of population cannot drive even if they try very very hard, but everyone applies for the driving license. The driving test fails those who cannot drive with a chance of 97%, but because the test has to be strict, it fails those who drive well with a probability of 3%. How likely it...
  6. A

    Working out standard deviation for three random variables with different sized ranges

    X = {1,2,3,4,5,6}, Y = {1,2,3,4}, Z = {2,4,6,8}. The question is: work out standard deviation of A = 2S-1, where S = the sum of the three random variables. I know that E(X) = 3.5, E(Y) = 2.5, E(Z) = 5 Var(X) = 2.916, Var(Y) 1.25, Var(Z) = 5 Now in order to find out the standard...
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    calculating $E(Y)$

    suppose X is random variable non negative with Distribution function F_{X}(x) and Y is random variable with Distribution function G_{Y}(t)=1-E(e^{-tX}) ,0\leq t . how can i calculate E(Y)
  8. A

    How to calculate probability of two samples

    Hello everyone, Just need advice how to calculate probability of two samples in a 2 x 4 table. so say i have two groups (brown haired people and blonde haired people) and the columns are 4 levels on a game. I have the counts for the numbers of people that got to each level. How do I...
  9. A

    Conditional probability of functions. Small question

    Hey, i was just looking at a question where the question is calculate: P( B(t) =< x| x=B(s) ). That is, calculate the probability that B(t) is less than or equal to x given that x is equal to B(s). Here B(t) is a brownian motion, but my question is not related to this. I understand the...
  10. W

    Determine the risk (probability) of meeting forecasted demand

    Hi, I'm doing a project for a car company for my final year studying Industrial Engineering. The company forecast demand 4 months ahead but, according to history data, the company rarely meets the forecast demand. The Supply Chain Department asked me to develop a model that would, with...
  11. C

    Dice probability question

    What are the odds of rolling 2d6(2 6-sided dice) three times and getting two 3s? How about rolling 4 times; 5 times? I know rolling a 2d6 has a 5.56% chance of landing a 3. How do I calculate the chances of that happening twice in 3/4/5 rolls?
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    bayes's theorem and conditional probability question

    chat **** get banged
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    Dice probability with limited reroll

    Hello, I'm having difficulty understanding this problem and I was wondering if someone had an answer. Let n = \text{Number of dice} = 3 p_s = \text{Single die success probability (when the face is 3 or more)} = \frac{1}{2} k = \text{Number of successful die} \in 0, 1, 2, 3 P(n, k...
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    Probability of most expensive item automatically being purchased

    Hi all, many thanks for any input on this perplexing problem: If a sporting good store offers a coupon as follows: Free soccer ball OR free T-shirt OR free Hat And their POS system automatically credits the highest purchase priced item to the individual if it is in their shopping...
  15. D

    Manufacturing machine probability problem

    There are three possible environment conditions: normal, rainy and hot. Rainy and hot days may be risky to a system that has been deployed, but normal days are safe. It is expected that half of the days will have normal weather, one quarter will be rainy and one quarter will be very hot...
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    Are the following events independent or dependent?

    I asked the following question in an exam. I can argue both ways, but I am very interested in any further thoughts. ---------------- Are the following events independent or dependent? Please give details of your choice. No marks will be given for answers without a reason. Event A –...
  17. N

    Finding Joint Posterior Density of Poisson and Exp?

    Hi, Some friends and I have been stuck on this bayesian stats question for five days now, please shed some light if you can :wave: We've tried to multiply the the Poisson posterior density and exponential posterior density together to produce a joint density, but we're told it's not correct :/...
  18. C

    Expected number of events in a simple birth-death process.

    I have a simple birth-death process with parameters, beta=4/5v and the initial population size is 6. I have calculated that the birth rate= 4/9 and the death rate=5/9 but is there a way of calculating how many events (births and deaths) there will be until this population dies out? I have a...
  19. S

    Deriving Probability Function from Non-Independent SubFunctions

    Howdy All, I attached a picture (inserted at bottom of post), to help explain what I'm trying to accomplish. In general, I don't need "the answer" so much as I need guidance on where to look to help me figure out the answer (concepts to google, book sections, PDF tutorials, whatever). The...
  20. A

    HELP! Probability That Any Book May Be Read

    I have a question and I'm hoping people can impart some wisdom to my dilemma. My dilemma is lack of data to apply to this problem. The question I'm trying to answer is the probability that any book (in the English language) may be read by any Joe Bloggs. The reason I want to know is because...