Covid-19& presidential election analytics

Question for statisticians: what is the mathematic probability of covid-19’s arrival in the US on a Presidential election year?


Active Member
I am very sad, time after time seeing people who think they came up with an original and topical data analysis question: Covid-19....

There is too little data. Statistics is the science about what to do with data. One needs data.
I apologize if my question was an insult in any way. I am just very interested in some of the math. If it’s not a statistic, what would be the correct term in regards to probability percentage?


No cake for spunky
I don't think its 25 percent. It might not show up for a hundred years. To do this type of analysis you have to know the probability distribution, which is essentially impossible for a new disease.


Active Member
1 if you sum over enough years. Let Pr( pandemic and election ) be Pr( A ) in demorgans law as given in previous post. The assumes that years and independent of course.
basic probability rule

'everything possible happens eventually' as the maxim goes.