# Covid-19& presidential election analytics

#### Syler

##### New Member
Question for statisticians: what is the mathematic probability of covid-19’s arrival in the US on a Presidential election year?

#### staassis

##### Active Member
I am very sad, time after time seeing people who think they came up with an original and topical data analysis question: Covid-19....

There is too little data. Statistics is the science about what to do with data. One needs data.

#### Syler

##### New Member
I apologize if my question was an insult in any way. I am just very interested in some of the math. If it’s not a statistic, what would be the correct term in regards to probability percentage?

#### hlsmith

##### Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
Given the two events are independent: 25%. Since an election happens every four years.

Though it is called Covid-'19' for a reason.

However, what is the probability of a novel strain of corona virus - a little more knowledge is needed there. But if you are interested in this topic the following book has pararells:

#### noetsi

##### No cake for spunky
I don't think its 25 percent. It might not show up for a hundred years. To do this type of analysis you have to know the probability distribution, which is essentially impossible for a new disease.

#### fed2

##### Active Member
1 if you sum over enough years. Let Pr( pandemic and election ) be Pr( A ) in demorgans law as given in previous post. The assumes that years and independent of course.
basic probability rule

'everything possible happens eventually' as the maxim goes.