I need to use Exponential Regression to forecast the future earnings of a company. I have the past 10 years of quarterly data.

I can do linear regression but the data is not in a linear fashion. It is more exponential in nature. I want to do an exponential transformation on the data and then use linear regression on that.

My question is, when I calculate the exponential growth from quarter to quarter, should I annualize this number or should I keep it as is.

For example, lets say I have the following data:

Date Profit Growth Annualized Growth Rate

01/01/2005 100.00

04/01/2005 101.50 1.50% 6.08%

07/01/2005 103.02 1.50% 6.02%

10/01/2005 104.00 0.95% 3.76%

01/01/2006 106.00 1.92% 7.63%

04/01/2006 107.40 1.32% 5.36%

07/01/2006 109.90 2.33% 9.34%

10/01/2006 110.30 0.36% 1.44%

01/01/2007 112.90 2.36% 9.35%

04/01/2007 114.30 1.24% 5.03%

07/01/2007 116.10 1.57% 6.32%

10/01/2007 117.80 1.46% 5.81%

01/01/2008 119.50 1.44% 5.73%

04/01/2008 121.30 1.51% 6.04%

07/01/2008 123.90 2.14% 8.60%

10/01/2008 125.00 0.89% 3.52%

01/01/2009 126.40 1.12% 4.44%

04/01/2009 128.80 1.90% 7.70%

07/01/2009 130.10 1.01% 4.05%

10/01/2009 132.00 1.46% 5.79%

01/01/2010 134.90 2.20% 8.72%

04/01/2010 136.20 0.96% 3.91%

07/01/2010 138.50 1.69% 6.77%

10/01/2010 140.20 1.23% 4.87%

01/01/2011 142.90 1.93% 7.64%

04/01/2011 145.10 1.54% 6.24%

07/01/2011 147.80 1.86% 7.46%

10/01/2011 149.40 1.08% 4.29%

01/01/2012 151.50 1.41% 5.58%

04/01/2012 154.00 1.65% 6.62%

07/01/2012 159.00 3.25% 13.02%

10/01/2012 158.20 -0.50% -2.00%

01/01/2013 162.00 2.40% 9.53%

04/01/2013 163.45 0.90% 3.63%

07/01/2013 165.00 0.95% 3.80%

10/01/2013 168.50 2.12% 8.42%

01/01/2014 170.30 1.07% 4.24%

04/01/2014 174.30 2.35% 9.53%

07/01/2014 175.00 0.40% 1.61%

10/01/2014 178.00 1.71% 6.80%

01/01/2015 181.50 1.97% 7.80%

04/01/2015 185.00 1.93% 7.82%

I want to take this data and say based on this, I project that the Profit in 4/1/2025 will be X.

What would be the best approach to do this?

My thinking is to use either the Growth or the Annualized Growth Rate (not sure which), do a linear regression on that. Then using that linear regression I could forecast that for quarter X the growth rate will be Y so therefore the profit should be Z. Then for quarter X+1 the growth rate will be Y+1 so therefore the profit should be Z+1. (not literally plus 1 but you get the point).

Am I on the right track?

Thanks! Jeremy