I did this quick for @Dason!
Code:
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# Monte Carlo Simulation
B = 1630337
T = 1609640
Tot_counted = B + T
Counted_Per = 0.97
State_Tot = Tot / Counted_Per
Outstanding = State_Tot - Tot
Lead = B - T
N = 100000
set.seed(2020)
y_rbeta <- rbeta(N, shape1 = 10, shape2 = 10)
hist(y_rbeta)
B_pred = (y_rbeta * Outstanding) + B
Target = State_Tot * 0.50
Target
hist(B_pred, main="Simulated Prob Biden Wins WI",
xlab='Simulated Biden Votes'); abline(v=Target, col='red', lwd=2)
prob = (sum(B_pred > Target)) / N
prob
###############################################
Simulated values do not take into account which counties are outstanding and their past tendencies!
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