Probability of an even occuring.

Georgie

New Member
Hi All,

I was after some help please regarding a problem I am trying to solve.

I know the probability of an event occurring is 0.7% (about 1/143). The event is the purchase of a product on my website. However, I wanted to know, what is the probability that no event occurs after 286 visits (2x143)?

Gee

Karabiner

TS Contributor
Or could we treat this as a survival analysis problem? The probability of no puchase is 0.993 after the first visitor, it is 0.993*0.993 after the second visitor, 0.993*0.993*0.993 after the third etc., therefore we expect a probability 0.993^286 for no purchase after 286 visits.

With kind regards

Karabiner

Last edited:

Georgie

New Member
Or could we treat this as a surival analysis problem? The probability of no puchase is 0.993 after the first visitor, ist is 0.993*0.993 after the second visitor, 0.993*0.993*0.993 after the third etc., therefore we expect a probability 0.993^286 for no purchase after 286 visits.

With kind regards

Karabiner
This is interesting Karabiner. Never thought of it like this. Thanks for the insight.

Many Thanks
Gee