Probability of dying from Covid today

#1
I am not a math wiz just an average person trying to find a real answer of the odds of dying of Covid. Do I get the immunization or not. We are bombarded by news. I was looking at it like this. There are 50% of the people unvacanated in the US now and online showes a 7 day average of only 300 people dying a day of covid. That seems insignificant to me. 300/160,000,000 is .000001875 or .0001875% and multiply that by 365 days a year (if only 300 die a day) appears to be .068% in the next year. Is this correct? almost seems insignificant unless you are one of the people that die. Is this math off?? Like I said Im not in school, just want to know by people that might understand this better than me.
Thanks,
 

obh

Well-Known Member
#2
Without checking your numbers, It is more complicated ...
I can assume that the percentage of vaccinated people is higher in the high-risk population.
You should also take into consideration all the people that recover from the covid, symptomatic and asymptomatic, they are vaccinated at least to a degree.
Dying is not the only problem, what about complications? the is a high rate of irreversible complications ...
Currently, most of the vaccinated people won't be much contagious, but this is slowly changed with the new variants.

Bottom line, I assume the risk from the vaccine is much lower than the risk from the covid... but since I'm not a doctor you should consult with your GP ...
 

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#3
@obh has a good point with comparing the risk of chronic sequela or death in unvaccinated vs. vaccinated individuals. That is what needs to be considered.

Secondarily, say you don't get vaccinated, become infected with SARS-CoV-2 and infect other people that are more likely to have negative impacts from the infection. So you also have your ability to harm and kill other people when unvaccinated vs vaccinated.

Side note - just get vaccinated - it is stupid not to and the precedence for employers to require it is coming. So you will be likely required to get vaccinated in the imminent future or wear a mask indefinitely. A recent court ruling upheld U of Indiana's attempt to require vaccination.
 

fed2

Active Member
#5
the other thing you have to keep in mind is that with infectious disease your risk depends on how many others have the disease, and that changes over time. That's different from other diseases. 'dependant happenings' is the fancy term. I mean, your chance of getting measles is also not significant, but there is a reason for that, ie most people don't have it, due largely to vaccination programs i bet.
 

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#6
Measles gets aerosolized and 95% people exposed to it - get it. It is scary contagious.

Yeah, a person's risk falls under state space models - where a person moves through states - dynamically changing risk. See, SIR, SEIR,.., etc. models.

Good point @fed2
 

noetsi

Fortran must die
#7
From what I have read the rate of serious injury is very small if vaccinated. No one knows the dangers from the vaccines, but there is little evidence it is large. There are likely few medicines that hurt absolutely no one.

COVID has primary and secondary effects. When a lot of people get sick the hospitals are over taxed and people who do not have covid suffer from that. The vaccine, well Pfizer, appear to work against all known variants.