Statistic question in a simple marketing implementation?


New Member
I know this question can be too simple for this forum, but Im new here and was not sure where to post.
I'm trying to build model for a simple marketing issue, where users get into a site, and only part of them register to the site. my goal is to find P - the probability that user that get into the site will register in the minimum number of test (which is the number of users that get into the site).

Let me know what you think about this model:
- lets mark P as the probability that user will sign up
- lets mark N, the number of users that already got into the site (clicks into the site).
- X is the number of registers we got from N users that got into the site.
Would it be a good assumption to say that X is distributed as Binomial random variable?(Binomial distribution)
If it does that I can build a model around it, but I need to know your opinion about the disterbution- or any other assumption

And how should I know if I got enough info, so the P I calculated is well enough? I thought about calculating the ration between Sigma and the average, i.e. for a given N , I calc P, and sigma/avg if it is low enough I can assume my P is ok.

Need your help

not a statistical guru