WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

Its interesting to think that violence is sort of infective like virus, another way of man bringing misery on man.

I read Cicero was a pompous a-hole. Catiline, now theres a hero. 'How long will you go on testing our patience, oh Catiline'?
Whooooa ... your gravitas is off-the-charts. Thx...
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Where who knew what when … does that explain why on this tangential cellphone meta-evidence of a Wuhan lab going dark in the months leading to the pandemic (5/8)? So much uncertainty to sift through...
More meta-data for analysis comes our way … so while the cellphone call-volume suspiciously dropped at a Wuhan virology research lab late last year (see earlier links, above), Wuhan hospitals' parking-lot traffic and internet searches for intestinal disorders and coughing went way up.

Satellite images of Wuhan may suggest that Coronavirus was spreading as early as August (6/8, Guardian paywall; also here and here, with a comprehensive Good Morning America video). By taking the miles-high perspective of analyzing the number of cars parked at Wuhan hospitals and Baidu searches of symptoms in that region, Harvard Medical School theorizes that the COVID-19 outbreak could have happened months earlier than was claimed.


Predictably, in the article, China’s foreign ministry rejected the not-yet-peer-reviewed study, calling it “extremely absurd” ... perhaps, but not nearly in the league of this whopper: the claimed Chinese COVID-19 death toll.

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Pandemic to pandemonium to … [REPEAT?]
Here’s an odd HERE-WE-GO-AGAIN datapoint, from the source of this 'topic': Yet another potential Coronavirus pandemic threat has popped up at a Chinese wholesale-food market (6/16) -- allegedly caused by infected salmon, imported from Europe (6/15) -- and this has become a top news item in the US. Although the number of infected Chinese is relatively low (106, so far) in comparison to the ongoing caseloads in the West (millions), for some reason, the Chinese uptick is now the more newsworthy. [Drudge milks it below.]


Perhaps the upside here is that China is reporting outbreaks early..?!? Then again, as a (thorough) cynic mulls the Chinese Communist Party's suspiciously-timed announcements (6/16):

The CCP's commitment to transparency in sharing these 'warnings' about the Beijing outbreak seems almost overdone, as these non stop drip-drip headlines hammer US stocks. It's almost as if they're saying these things solely to hammer the US market (what's the point of announcing these measures when it's the middle of the night in China?).

A CBS News article on the Beijing outbreak (6/16) helpfully notes that Tokyo -- with a population of 37 million in its urban area -- is also having a COVID-19 resurgence ... adding a massive 20+ cases/day. Their bottom-line conclusion, for those who are missing the message:

The surges in two of Asia's biggest capitals serve as a clear warning to America and all other countries: reopening risks reinfection.
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Uh oh ... now we find out that the World Health Organization first heard of the Wuhan outbreak from a US website, rather than directly from China (7/2), as was earlier claimed.

Hey, why not … Suspected Bubonic Plague Case Reported in China’s Inner Mongolia (7/5).

The Wuhan “bat woman” -- Dr Shi Zhengli -- notes the striking similarity of the virus causing COVID-19 to one studied at that same lab earlier, as “it was 96.2% similar to a coronavirus sample named RaTG13 obtained in Yunnan in 2013” (7/5; for reference, human and chimp genomes are also about 96% similar). What's odd is that this information was initially disclosed in a paper in February 2020 by the scientist, but it's only being reported now...
UPDATE (7/4): Perhaps the study's release has something to do with this ... Why no one should believe COVID-19 is naturally-occurring.​
Oh, and now China is unhappily crowing again about importing their exported virus on seafood ... this time, the packaging of Ecuadorian shrimp is the alleged culprit (7/11; also Bloomberg, paywall).

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In contrast to the dovish Sinophile WHO administration, a controversial “ultra-hawk on China” claims that Chinese defectors are now sharing with Western intelligence agencies what actually happened in Wuhan (7/12), where the virus in now acknowledged to have been brought to the wet market, rather than originating from. That said, even if it was just a could-happen-to-anyone accident, it’s claimed that “95 per cent of the lives lost and the economic carnage would have been contained”, if the Chinese Communist Party hadn’t engaged in a cover-up.

On the other hand, at least WHO and American billionaires agree ... Elon Musk: ‘China Rocks,’ America Is Full of ‘Complacency and Entitlement (8/3). And now Bill Gates helpfully reprimands reminds us that the death toll of the ‘climate change’ could be worse than that of the Coronavirus, every year (8/6), so don’t even think about feeling optimistic about anything anytime anyhow.

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Thanks to globalization
Of course, this would never ever happen with our highly anticipated COVID-19 vaccine -- UN Forced to Admit Gates-funded Vaccine is Causing Polio Outbreak in Africa (9/4) – because Reasons.

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The ongoing societal turbulence from the nexus of pandemic, pandemonium, etc was accurately predicted by Dr Peter Turchin, a UConn professor (6/16) who teaches cultural evolution. Turchin theorizes that overproduction of (troublemaking) elites is the primary cause of the rise of the dissatisfied All Other oppressed (both links from 2013, when turbulence was on the upswing) ... looks like this is yet another monatomic zero-sum relationship.

Turchin characterizes human history in 50- to 60-year cycles of order and disorder … the 1960s were an unrest peak, and alas now we have arrived at...

2020 (6/1).
The incidents of riots and anti-government demonstrations are charted below for the US and Europe.

Since his recent told-you-so column on 2020 (above), Turchin has issued an explanation of his methodology -- The Science behind My Forecast for 2020 (6/15) – which includes the following chart for the US from 1955-2020 with his custom metric:

Political Stress Indicator (PSI … under pressure, indeed) .

Oddly, the 1960s is shown as pretty tranquil. Also, it seems that this chart has an inflection point around the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow and our planet began to heal

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Practice makes perfect..? The Pandemic Is a Dress Rehearsal (8/3, WSJ paywall): “The world is entering a transformative era. Prepare for more chaos and instability.”

Beware disunity, encouraged by a parasitic elite class (8/22) ... that's "How Nations Collapse” (8/22).

Then again, the societal turbulence could be a healthy exercise ... In Defense of Looting, re: hands-on wealth redistribution (8/27). Who wants to wait around for boring, orderly ‘government transfers’..?
UPDATE: Being 2020 and all, even this perspective is transitioning (8/30).​
Newsflash (8/30): The fiery-but-mostly-peaceful Biden campaign has taken a stand on the street violence … “We must not become a country at war with ourselves.” (One could ask how 'We' is defined, kemosabe.) Right now, civility and common ground are pretty darn scarce.

From a Parisian’s detached perspective, our chaos and division looks like an ‘inside job, birthed in early 2017 (8/30).

Ever roll-your-eyes when an erudite joker smugly notes that “Life imitates art”..? Well, at least in terms of bad art ... who’s the Joker now? (8/31)

[NOTE: Not Minneapolis, nor Portland or Kenosha ... just everyday CGI.]

Flashback: In the unlikely event of a repeat of that Election 2016 surprise, the core of the Democratic supporters will need to double-down on their past efforts to construct a safe, supportive, inclusive community ... assuming that the infrastructure hasn’t already been torched.

Getting what they're paying for..???
Connecting the follow-the-money dots from the globalist oligarchs to mega-corporations to BLM to the DNC … to the onslaught of the beleaguered American middle class: Mission Accomplished? Corporate-Sponsored BLM Has "Vanished" the Emerging "Anti-Globalist" Majority That Elected Trump (9/4).
UPDATE (9/19): BLM is an NGO, a non-government organization … a “corporate-funded, agenda-driven franchise performing the tasks that best promote the interests of its deep-pocket contributors. The grassroots social justice stuff is mostly baloney.”​
UPDATE (10/6): Buffett’s bucks back Black Lives Matter..? (detailed financial analysis)​

Simplified schematic of ActBlue fundraising...
Q: Are you a liberal-arts academic that’s curious about different viewpoints? (9/10)
A: Don’t be. (Nice career you have there ... it'd be a shame if something happened to it.)

Q: Are you curious about alternative approaches to pandemics other than drastic lockdowns and PPE measures?
A: You really shouldn't be, but ... here's the stoic architect of Sweden’s COVID response, reflecting on their novel lighthanded experiment (9/10).

Q: When do our health experts expect that it will be safe to open schools?
A: Right after Election Day would be the ideal time … let’s get that bizness taken care of, before we get back to the New (ab)Normal (9/11).

Belgium health authorities have had it with their government’s lockdown (9/20). There and elsewhere in the world: Disease Panic Put Us on a Dangerous Course (9/23).

The masses have been attacked with Weapons of Mass Submission (9/7), by the governments that were tasked to protect them. And that applies to foreigners too (9/27), as well as candy-bar shoppers (9/26).

Size matters, but there are exceptions (10/16).
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TS Contributor
Hey, ex post rulez ok.

At any time, there are many, many prognoses about any type
of upcoming crisis, e.g. economic crash, violent conflicts, epidemics etc.
After a crisis has happened, the one correct out of 3416 prognoses is
picked up and some people inevtiably say "see, Professor XY told you
so before" (and if Prof. XY is clever, he will make a living from his
supposedly magical precognition, introduced where ever he appears
as "this is the man who predicted the crash of 2008" or something like that).

Personally, I would have been interested in that stuff if you had cited it last
year, in order to point predict what will be happening 2020.

With kind regards

Personally, I would have been interested in that stuff if you had cited it last
year, in order to point predict what will be happening 2020.
Despite my being a fan of Turchin since his 2013 prognoses on his 60-year order-disorder cycle, this material wasn't applicable/relevant, until our pandemic lockdown recently transitioned into social-justice pandemonium.

That said, Turchin was cited earlier in this thread, commenting on the impact of COVID-19 on the US, before the pandemonium started...
The leading cliodynamist, who sees world history in unit-metrics of centuries, has a gloomy outlook on the impact of COVID-19 on the US, well beyond the eventual death toll (4/20). Back in 2013, this historian had (way too) accurately forecast our present social turbulence: Blame Rich, Overeducated Elites as Society Frays (reprint, not behind Bloomberg paywall).
Guess we'll need to wait until 2080 to see if Turchin can truly take a victory lap on his cliodynamic theory.

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Here’s an earlier thorough statistical overview by Turchin on the ‘Impending Crisis’ (c.2008; lots of relevant charts, data going back to 1780) ... of course, the crisis is now no longer pending. From the probability/prediction standpoint, Turchin has noted that, historically, social upheaval can lead to civil war, and this 2020 turbulence could possibly lead in that unfortunate direction (6/17, and here).

Turchin had already noted The Strange Disappearance of Cooperation in America (2013), with the decline of 'social capital'. He argues that "general well-being (and high levels of social cooperation) tends to move in the opposite direction from [income] inequality".

For more perspective on Turchin’s broad cliodynamic theories, his book War and Peace and War (2006, the title a wry reference to the cycles of human history) maintains that asabiya – the Arabic term for social cohesiveness and capacity for collective action – is critical for a successful society.

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Dr Turchin himself rightfully boasts, and then wonders … "I predicted 2020 would be a mess for the U.S. Could that help prevent a second civil war?" (7/3, The Globe and Mail paywall)
Excerpt: Nevertheless, ours may be the first society with the opportunity to perceive the deep underground currents underlying the current crisis. Complex systems, such as our society, resist simple linear solutions, which often make situations worse through unintended consequences. We need to use the novel methods of complexity science, translating our analytical insights from studying past and current crises, into evidence-backed, probabilistic and scientifically rigorous computational models that leaders and the public can use.
What are the odds of a 'self-defeating prophecy'? And even if we can’t learn from our mistakes, perhaps at least we can benefit from the ‘Observer effect’..?

Another can't-miss mess in 2020: Innovative mostly-peaceful protesting, that got the job done, Johnny (9/18).

What a surpriseNYT: White Leftist Anarchists Are Organizing Riots, Much Like Bill Barr Says (10/1; more here).

Combining fascist tactics with French tenets … The Art of Propaganda (10/5), now utilized by BLM and Antifa. Meanwhile, what do Islamists and Wokeists have in common? (9/10, WSJ paywall)

Keep French philosophers 'on tap', but never on top … Sarte would have appreciated the glorious ‘freedom’ – with self-restraint! -- resulting from the societal lockdown, like he had with the WWII German occupation (9/30).

More cross-cultural synergy: Facebook, Twitter and Google learn from the ancient Oriental masters on cutting-edge censorship of conveyors of improper ideas, damaging the individual's all-important “social credit score” (10/6).

WANTED: Civic-minded American ‘elites’ … as it’s not going well with our present set of ruling elites, bringing talk of messy insurrection and even revolution (10/21), yikes.

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On the 2020 disorder front...

In retrospect, around early June ... what could have altered the trajectories of these graphs of cumulative shooting victims by year, in Chicago, NYC and other American urban areas? (10/14)

Our elite media is apparently perplexed about this strange phenomenon ... perhaps it something to do with that darn opening-up after the COVID lockdown ... yeah, that’s the ticket.​
Hey, think of all the overtime … NYPD prepares for yet another chapter in NYC’s New Normal (10/13). Plus, then there's the time off, with pay, for on-the-job injuries.

Too bad I didn’t really get what was happening in that movie: Life within ‘the Matrix’ is our Future (10/13).
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A Nobel-winning economist suggests that ‘Narrative epidemics’ now drive the wacky valuation of equities: Understanding the Pandemic Stock Market (7/7). Markets no longer react to the news, instead react to the reaction to the news. This could lead one to ponder: Cui bono? …the 0.001% is certainly doing just fine, while 99% of America is divided and distracted. [UPDATE (7/31): In case you were wondering, the rich continue their winning ways.]

In Narrative-epidemic news, the US media continues to crow loudly about the increased COVID-19 case rate with the massive increase in testing, but avoids reporting the falling death rate (7/8).

In theory, the above data could provide opportunities for rational analyses ... as might the following chart.

Q: What might have brought on this macro-data inflection, around early June..?
A: Probably just the increased frequency of testing, lax mask restrictions, too-early economic re-opening, etc etc...

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As the UK mandates a second lockdown, due to increased ‘cases’ flagged from ongoing extensive screening, a pharma-exec doctor notes that COVID-19 false positives swamp the actual number of those inflicted (9/20).

If masks are supposed to work at eliminating the spread of COVID-19, then why don’t they work? (9/14; data by country, see below)


More of this case-count methodology on the ‘mask-mandate debate’ (10/6).​

Despite this experience from all over the world, Dr Robert Redfield, who heads the CDC, thinks that face covering was the answer all along (9/28), and that … "If every one of us did it, this pandemic would be over in eight to 12 weeks."
UPDATE (10/9): Dr Fauci calls the SCOTUS Rose Garden ceremony a COVID "superspreader event".​
A cynic mulls the eMASKulation of it all (9/10).

Everyone is doing it ... nowhere is it working (12/7).

The emperor has no clothes, but he does still wears a mask (3/15).

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In-depth worldwide analysis of COVID-19 scenarios in 2021 (10/25, mortality rates quoted are probably of hospitalizations).

There's that inexplicable jump, just after early June (see previous chart), in US cases/hospitalizations .
After his own agency let slip reported that only about 6% of COVID fatalities had no pre-existing conditions, Dr Fauci emphasized in early September that of the other 94% of deaths with preexisting conditions, COVID was still accounted as the catalyst/cause for 92% of those deaths.

The CDC, however, considers the underlying cause of death as “the condition that began the chain of events that ultimately led to the person’s death,” and in 92% of all deaths that mention Covid-19, the virus was listed as the underlying cause of death, Bob Anderson, lead mortality statistician at NCHS, said in a statement.​

And so Fauci and the CDC stand behind the inflated US COVID-fatality figures, now over 230K (10/26) and ever climbing. The linked article cheerfully notes that the US COVID death toll therefore “account(s) for just over 21% of the globe’s total reported deaths” ... and if true, that would mean that...

Hey, I'd thought we'd prided ourselves on our no-expense-spared medical system in the United States (which consumes about 20% of our GDP) ... and now Fauci -- one of the top docs in the country! -- lets us know how poorly the US medical community performed in this pandemic.

Something doesn't quite make sense here... (nor here). Gotta keep things in perspective.

UPDATE (4/5): With 569K US deaths from COVID in a population of 332M, Americans are dying at an almost 6X rate that of neighboring Canadians (23K deaths in 38M) ... inexplicably unacceptable.
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This is a continuation of post

Finally, we have detailed thorough academic rational analyses -- by Imperial College London* -- on the overall impact of the COVID-19 shutdown (7/17, PDF):
Excerpt: The lowest estimate for lockdown costs incurred was 50% higher than highest benefits from avoiding the worst mortality case scenario at full life expectancy tariff and in more realistic estimation they were over 50 times higher.

This paper is now apparently still in peer-review, so it might get yanked for being contrarian to the missions of the WHO, CDC, Gates Foundation, American media, DNC, local government administration, my neighbors, most of my family and friends, etc.

* Ironically, Imperial College’s Neil Ferguson was the prime conveyor of the early COVID-19 doomsday projection that was used to justify said lockdowns.

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Let's revisit the disparate impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, with its zero-sum financial (a)symmetry...

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Active Member
I don't doubt it. For me, I just always have an aversion to these 'quality life years lost' and related metrics. Its just not a 'hard' outcome in the clinical trial sense. I'm all like: 'fine, but can we get back to biology now?'. I like endpoints like dead: check yes or no.
For me, I just always have an aversion to these 'quality life years lost' and related metrics. Its just not a 'hard' outcome in the clinical trial sense. I'm all like: 'fine, but can we get back to biology now?'. I like endpoints like dead: check yes or no.
While the concept of ‘Life’ is indeed binary -- in the classic ON/OFF sense -- the more nuanced concept of time in biology is a meaningful metric to understand and monitor the impact of novel forces on an organism’s population and environment. In the animal realm, this applies from mayflies to quahog clams, although the relative time-scale would vary for each organism.

Unfortunately, the human organism’s unique self-awareness can lead to irrational decisions, with regards to the impact on the population and environment of a given force (Coronavirus) and the resultant reaction (global pandemic and economic shutdown).
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I have doubts you can actually model US cultural responses to the virus, but that is a purely personal opinion.
Your doubts have merit in a general sense, but at least some folks like the intrepid cliodynamist, Dr Turchin, take a crack at the 'Big Picture' (see earlier post).

And let's not forget that making projections about the future is part of the essence of being human. As is socializing, although that's been restricted by government-mandate, until further notice ... any projections on when that inaction will be eased?


UPDATE (11/13): Dr Turchin of UConn is irate (for him, see above) that a mainstream publication has labeled him The Mad Prophet of Connecticut, for his methodology and uncannily accurate 2020 projections (11/13). Not sure if it was 'the mad prophet’ or the ‘of Connecticut’ aspect that was the most triggering … compounded by the misguided assumption by the writer that Turchin’s ‘cliodynamics’ is meant as a replacement for ‘history’, when it’s merely an augmentation for studying history for the purpose of projecting trends or something.

Early Christmas shopping opp? ... in turbulent times like these, ‘Figuring Out the Past’ -- Turchin’s new book, which he plugs here, 11/17 -- helps one understand the future, using, to be exact, “3495 Vital Statistics that explain World History”. In case you were wondering…
The book presents ‘deep dives’ into 57 separate societies from the ancient, medieval, early-modern, and modern periods, along with a host of rankings (the largest empire by territory ever, the tallest Medieval building, etc.) and a special section highlighting the adoption of important traits in each world region (like having a full-time bureaucracy, or the first use of paper currency, or the adoption of monogamy as widespread practice) along with some maps showing how key technologies like agriculture and gunpowder spread throughout the world.​
An example what folks did, pre-internet..
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Dr Turchin’s thesis of elite-overproduction leading to inevitable conflict seems to be playing out these days, and it’s not looking good for societal smooth sailing (4/19):

What’s probably coming next: ubiquitous climate change alarmism, can be understood to mean there aren’t enough private jets to go around, and it was even getting crowded in First Class.​
The elites are not constrained by limits, until there is nothing left to strip from the underclass and they come into conflict with each other.
Then, well, things need to get serious. We need a world war, or a global lockdown, or a climate emergency to keep the rabble in line so that the people on top can finish sorting out the spoils.​
Happier, halcyon times...​
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Active Member
I have doubts you can actually model US cultural responses to the virus, but that is a purely personal opinion
to me, it just seems that some of the health-economics things are too open to seeing it the way you want to. The score keeping just seems open to manipulation. Its hard enough to agree on basic things like 'did they die of the disease y/n', and the data is all a mish-mash of various sources and methods with no real control or standardization.

I guess im saying that if there is some sort of 'flat earth society' for health-economics you could probably sign me up. Its like budget reports on how many billions of dollars various policies will save. Sure man, let me know when you got the billion!

with that said i don't doubt the basic conclusion, which seems to be 'lockdowns dont pay for themselves', but that could be said of alot of medical interventions if you think about it.
to me, it just seems that some of the health-economics things are too open to seeing it the way you want to. The score keeping just seems open to manipulation. Its hard enough to agree on basic things like 'did they die of the disease y/n', and the data is all a mish-mash of various sources and methods with no real control or standardization.
** BINGO ** The nuance between dying with, and dying from, COVID-19 makes all the difference in clouding the official check-marked fatality data … right, Dr Birx? (early April press conference, where she outlines the difference between US official policy and that of other countries). Also back in April, the follow-the-money incentive for hospital administrators to classify patients as COVID-19 sufferersconfirmed or not, pre-existing conditions or none -- was revealed by a physician-politician, a claim that survived debunking.

Courtesy of the CDC, a look at the concrete raw macro-data of all US deaths shows the diminishing effect of COVID-19 on overall weekly fatalities:
Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19 (7/22, reformatted chart below)

From that Big Picture study, it certainly appears that the impact/threat of COVID-19 is dissipating ... but you wouldn’t know that from what’s being squawked about by health officials, politicians and the media. It's almost as if these pillars-of-the-community have an agenda.

UPDATE (9/15): Is there something fishy going on at the CDC..? (beyond just counting all COVID deaths with the disease as from the disease)
Their ongoing chart on US weekly deaths (below) is predicting an unprecedented low number of deaths in our near future … a cynic could suggest that this might allow the CDC to boost the all-important “observed count above threshold” for excess deaths, heaven knows why.


The fishyness at the CDC continues unabated, as they massage both the projected and observed US weekly death counts. That odd low weekly projection noted above has since been rectified upward, as well as past weeks' projections being somewhat adjusted -- what? -- as well as the observed death counts ... all after the fact, which doesn't sound kosher (10/1).

I guess if you torture data enough, it will say what you want ... but what's the intended CDC message here?

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Dr. Rebel Cole -- a business-analyst professor from Florida, a COVID-19 epicenter -- notes the faulty recording/reporting on the incidence rate of infection and fatality (7/20). His team at Florida Atlantic University created a ‘COVID tracker’ that more accurately accounts for these statistics in the state. In a TV interview (7/24), Dr. Cole laments that government data is irretrievably screwed skewed by:

1) Dr Birx’s April mandate that a death with COVID must be counted as a death from COVID,​
2) many testing facilities reporting only positive tests, not their negative tests, and​
3) deaths and new cases tending to be reported in clumps, not on the day they occurred.​
In the first link above, Dr Cole points out that the original strain of the COVID-19 virus, known as ‘D614’, mutated into a new strain known as ‘G614’. Researchers have determined that the new strain is about 10 times as infectious as the original virus, but is much less lethal. It is G614 that is prevalent across the Sun Belt, where positive cases have soared.
UPDATE: Looks like Florida is ahead of the curve yet again, as a COVID-19 strain -- D614G – identified in Malaysia is 10X more infectious than garden-variety Coronavirus (8/17, Bloomberg paywall; also reviewed here).​

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In the interest of not having to stress over strains, a University of Bologna research team finds that “the virus causing the COVID-19 pandemic, SARS-CoV-2, presents at least six strains. Despite its mutations, the virus shows little variability, and this is good news for the researchers working on a viable vaccine” (8/4). The Unibo team leader notes that
  • "The SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus is presumably already optimized to affect human beings, and this explains its low evolutionary change" (the common flu generally has at least twice as many strains), and he adds that
  • "Strain G and its related strains ... are by far the most widespread, representing 74% of all gene sequences we analysed" (48,635 coronavirus genomes which were isolated by researchers in labs all over the world).
Then again -- FRANKENBUG? -- a very credible Italian expert in biotechnology and nanotechnology released a book back in April that maintained that the COVID-19 virus was developed in a Wuhan lab (4/8), and noted that the Chinese program had early assistance from the French and Americans, including possible support work from grants from Dr Fauci’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease . Now the esperto Italiano concludes that this ‘chimera’ – with man-altered DNA -- will be resistant to vaccines across the various virus strains (8/10, Conspiracy alert). Of course, the Chinese seem to have misplaced the original matrix or source samples of their viral handiwork ... which would have been really really helpful in developing vaccine(s)...
UPDATE (9/14): A Hong Kong virologist with insider knowledge -- Dr. Li-Meng Yan -- maintains that the virus was concocted in a Wuhan lab controlled by the Chinese government (her technical paper here). She insisted that widespread reports that the virus originated last year from a wet market in Wuhan are “a smoke screen.”​
UPDATE (9/16): Does Twitter remove re-tweets referencing the account suspension of diabolical tweeter who may be an “anti-Chinese racist”..?​
UPDATE (9/28): Did we use … Fake News in our pandemic response?!? Did Chairman Xi use his training in ‘complexity science’ and propaganda to get the rest of the World to lockdown their societies?
UPDATE (10/2): It’s important to think creatively to understand interspecies viral transfer (10/2, more here).​
UPDATE (10/4): Someday, this gripping saga will be on the ‘big screen’or maybe not. This production is more aligned with America’s vision of the future (10/22).​
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Active Member
yeah i dont know, i sholdn't encourage you with this but its more entertaining than the usual normal curves fair.

I just wonder how some of these people get to such high places in these government agencies without knowing how to kiss up better. If el jefe says the trend is down, then draw a graph with a downward trend, if he/she says up then up. Simple. Why make a huge project of finding 'correct figures' when no ones got a clue anyway?


Active Member
Well don't look at me, i just *accidentally* stumbled in here as well. But since we were all spotted at the scene of the crime, I think that honor among thieves dictates that we all go our separate ways and not speak of it again.
Every time I accidentally stumble into this thread it feels like an entirely different site in a bad way.
Sorry if this thread stirs emotions, with its overall way-badness.

It's just kinda hard to find goodness in this global pandemic ... then resultant societal lockdown and, with it, economic collapse ... then widespread violent pandemonium ... then [who-tf knows what's next]...

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Finally, a 'feel-good' angle, during our COVID crisis ... please note that this personalized therapy should only be practiced during self-quarantine. On a related note, Dr Fauci recommends wearing goggles (7/30). Regarding the track record of Dr Fauci's recommendations … tiring of his “questionable claims over the past few months”, most Americans place more trust in another well-known Doctor (8/14).

Speaking of self-service, an innovative Harvard Medical School doctor proposes that frequent cheap COVID-19 tests (only $1 each) with limited sensitivity, performed and analyzed at home, “will allow us to stop the raging outbreaks that are burning in half the country right now” (8/3).

Hey, another bad-news COVID-19 tangent ... these budding known-known infectious-disease crises were certainly predictable, if inconveniently concurrent … ‘The Biggest Monster’ Is Spreading. And It’s Not the Coronavirus (8/4, NYTimes paywall): “Tuberculosis kills 1.5 million people each year. Lockdowns and supply-chain disruptions threaten progress against the disease as well as H.I.V. and malaria.” It's noted that worldwide progress in the prevention of these ailments could be set back 20 years.

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Let’s revisit the raging Mask Debate, shall we..? Top European health officials weigh in (8/6), as does a cynic, on our virtue-signaling amulets (8/8). Then there’s the peaceful protest” exemption (8/8) and virtual virtue-signaling (8/13).

PSA, 2020: Wear headphones when you go outside, to prevent Zombie infection (8/6), endangering yourself and those humans around you ... CDC studies show that this simple precaution protects your BRRAAAIN...

UPDATE (10/26) on the quenchless desire for BRRAAAIN... We now understand that political campaigns are especially susceptible to disease infection.​

Do you remember five months agobefore government got its foot in the door?
Bait-&-Switch: How they’ve changed the Covid conversation (8/18): It was supposed to be about life and death, but for weeks now we’re only hearing about cases. This UK article has comprehensive weblinks, including year-to-year pan-European mortality data (see below; x-axis is the week-of-the-year).

Along these lines, here's a treasure trove of graphs on COVID-19 excess deaths, from around the world (7/15, but updated; other countries may account for COVID deaths differently than the US, where dying with COVID is officially counted as dying from COVID).

Putting a positive spin on things, professors with the Santa Fe Institute look at this Coronavirus pandemic as a fine example of a “complex system, replete with heavy-tails, knock-on effects, and stabilizing fractals, all ripe for analysis (8/21). The authors see this ongoing worldwide human event as the “dawn” to a “better future” … uh, I dunno about that.

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Excess deaths’ always seemed like a very fudge-able malleable metric (10/18), which brings us to...

STAT News parrots the conclusion of a CDC report with creative crunching of fatality macro-data, that -- during Coronavirus pandemic -- the US ‘excess deaths’ of all causes have been estimated at about 300K, with the sweeping understanding that 2/3rds of those must be “from COVID” (10/20), and so matching perfectly the widely quoted death toll. This conundrum of classifying deaths with-COVID as from-COVID is especially sneaky of the CDC, as they well know that only about 6% of COVID fatalities have NO pre-existing conditions (with-COVID fatalities have an average of 2.5 pre-existing conditions). Perhaps the higher death rates during the COVID pandemic – which essentially doubled the overall natural death rates of those over 30 years, as we have seen earlier – had other causes than the virus, as things just kind of suck all around during these lockdowns, especially for the elderly and ailing.
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This certainly sounds like rational Coronavirus analysis: Governments Are Faking It, and Copying Each Other (8/20).

Pondering the risks of reopening the economy, schools, events, travel...

It will be interesting to see how our wise global elite unwind this ‘Kabuki theater’ (8/11) of “homogeneous diffusion of COVID-19 nonpharmaceutical interventions across heterogeneous countries”.

On the 'community level': What he said… (Aug ’20)

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20/20 HINDSIGHT in 2020: “There’s only so much a government can do to ‘control’ a virus…” (8/23, WSJ paywall) In the H1N1 swine-flu outbreak of 2009-10, as many as 60 million Americans were infected. But that disease fortunately wasn’t nearly as deadly as COVID-19, so the American people -- and the Obama/Biden administration -- dodged a bullet. Lessons learned from that swine-flu experience will certainly be useful Day 1 of the incoming Biden administration (8/20; StatsNews, taking a break from statistics), when Joe and his team of experts -- "who have been planning and thinking deeply about this, and who know what they’re doing” -- will finally crush SARS-CoV-2 like the bug it is. Step #1: Mask up, America!!! (8/28) … “God willing, it won’t be forever.”

On the topic of government control, Governor Buzzkill Cuomo knows what’s best for his citizens (8/21). “There is nothing that New Yorkers won’t do when told to do it…” (except, perhaps, move back to NYC with their tax dollars, 8/5). But, of course, rules only apply to the common folk … right, Nancy? (9/2)

A Brazilian study reveals that refusal to wear a facemask is linked to sociopathy (8/31, The Times paywall; also here), and that “those trivializing the risks of COVID-19 showed signs of ‘the so-called dark-triad of personality traits — narcissism, Machiavellianism and psychopathy’"...


The Israeli ‘corona czarsounds like a real Nazi (9/17), when it comes to social-distancing restrictions.

PSA: Yo, bro, 'T’-low could be a problem with the 'ro... (9/28)
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TS Contributor
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