WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

Dason

Ambassador to the humans
#81
Thanks for the reductionist Coronavirus analyses. It is all quite simple:
  1. Viruses are bad and contagious, and should be avoided (along with weirdos).
  2. Vaccines are good and virtuous, and should be encouraged.
I'll be honest I'm literally not sure if you're being honest and believe those statements even if they're more simplified or if you think they're too simple and silly and you believe something else.
 
#82
in defense of reductionists: We probably would not even know about viruses without molecular biology, the most reductionist of all biologies.
Dr Richard Feynman, the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, thought that Man's greatest discovery was the 'particle nature' of matter.

Molecular biology is nicely reductionist and particular in nature, with a significant progress assist for the scientists from the engineers and craftsmen that invented and built their various microscopes, etc for the discovery process. Let's not ever forget the hardware guys.

Unfortunately, at least with this less-scientific case, virologists have been grasping, reductionly ... like with the sudden recommended transition from 3-foot distancing to 6-foot. Whatever ... from a nonlinear standpoint, a 2X increase in the distancing radius translates to 4X more 'safe space' and 8X more 'safe volume'. Progress. Forward!

More reductionism: Our immune systems “will likely turn future Covid-19 infections into the equivalent of a cold” (5/19, STAT News has had a rational perspective since this pandemic started).

Reductionism, Human Freedom Category: An ex-Pfizer VP and Chief Science Officer sees the COVID vaccine program as the pathway to “complete totalitarian control”, leading to the “end of human freedom” (4/26, long confessional video). He admits that he's a mere scientist, and is "not any good" at this political stuff, and is suffering personally for speaking out.

Reductionism, Virology Category: PRO-TIP? => Do NOT vaccinate while a pandemic is raging.
Vaccines are generally available about 5 years after the discovery of a disease ... in contrast, the various COVID-19 vaxs took less than a year, and the source virus has never been located, let alone identified, further mystifying things. A French Nobel Prize-winning virologist theorizes that COVID vaccines could be creating variants, as the virus 'adapts to survive’, Darwinianly (5/21, short subtitled video interview). This information is conveyed by a non-mainstream news source from India, where the pandemic is now belatedly raging away. They present the Indian growth rates of COVID vaccine and active cases (below, with annotation), not that any correlation proves causation...

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Reductionism, American Media = ‘School of Fish’ Category (5/25)

--------[ WAIT ... THERE'S MORE!!! ]-------

Q: Who ‘played politics’ with the Coronavirus?

After the Trump administration suggested early on that the virus may have come from a Wuhan lab, this theory was immediately labeled a politically motived ‘conspiracy’ by the worldwide science community, and so could be dismissed out of hand. A brave MIT molecular biologist -- Dr Alina Chan -- boldly continued her work showing that, since the COVID-19 strain didn’t mutate with human transmission, it could have very well been developed in a lab, in, say, Wuhan, China, dismaying said worldwide science community (9/9):

It’s almost as if we’re missing the early phase [of viral evolution],” Chan marveled to [her friend and collaborator] Zhan. Or, as she put it in their paper, as if “it was already well adapted for human transmission.”​
…​
The missing phase had happened in a lab, where the virus had been trained on human cells. Chan knew this was the third rail of potential explanations. At the time, conspiracy theorists were spinning bioweapon fantasies, and Chan was loath to give them any ammunition. But she also didn’t want to play politics by withholding her findings.​

Researcher Chan later shared her very practical career concerns with the lab-origin theory (4/13), as we live in a world where scientists really need to follow-the-money:

"We have all of these virus hunting programs spread everywhere, especially in developing countries. They’re worth hundreds of millions of dollars. And it’s not just that many, many groups of scientists all draw from this money. There’s a disincentive for them to advocate for an investigation into origins because it could shift the perception of their work as life-saving, as pandemic-preventing, to one that could actually result in a pandemic and in lives lost."​

BOTTOM LINE: When scientific disciplines worldwide are questioned, it’s critical to circle-the-wagons and selectively curate ‘facts’ … which makes those folks more like artists than scientists.
...

UPDATE, Atomic-level (non-artistic, 5/5): With virologists worldwide not questioning the COVID origin, the theory of natural emergence of the SARS2 virus has been the scientific consensus since early 2020, despite there being “no shred of evidence”. In this information vacuum, The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is compelled to weigh in on the origins of this dangerous little SARS2 particle that has run rampant. Atomic Scientists extensively detail 1) why the virologists’ natural-emergence reasoning is flimsy, 2) why it certainly appears likely that SARS2 virus escaped from the Wuhan lab after gain-of-function procedures, and 3) why virologists are so darn incurious about this origin topic:

"Science is supposedly a self-correcting community of experts who constantly check each other’s work. So why didn’t other virologists point out that the [official virology] group’s argument was full of absurdly large holes? Perhaps because in today’s universities speech can be very costly. Careers can be destroyed for stepping out of line."​
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NOTE on this RATIONAL CORONAVIRUS ANALYSIS: With regards to this SARS-CoV-2 or 'SARS2' virus and its functionality, mutability, etc, the above article by Atomic Scientists provides everything you need to know ... and way way more (commentary here, from a writer favoring the lab-escape theory).
UPDATE (5/13): A lighthearted look at the “baseless pomposity of our high priests of SCIENCE” in the quest to determine the origin of the virus.
UPDATE (5/18): With the dearth of hard evidence available from China, a cynic questions the gain-of-function lab-origin theory: Son of Frankencovid. (More extreme cynicism here, about everything.)
UPDATE (5/25): Senator Paul accuses Dr Fauci of perjury in denying CDC funding of gain-of-function research in Wuhan, suggesting he should be fired … if so, we know just the guy to do that.
The above techno-weaselry in virology should not surprise us, as the man-made worldwide ‘COVID crisis’ has corrupted Science through its coercive statism partnership with government and media (5/3). In the name of follow-the-science, governments forcibly locked healthy people in their own homes, “crossing a line that is not likely to get uncrossed”.

Very early in the pandemic, UK and USA politicians and health authorities justified their unprecedented lockdown strategies with global COVID-fatality projections by Neil Ferguson of Imperial College, London ... which – in hindsight – ended up being “wild exaggerations from a fundamentally flawed model” (5/5).

UPDATE (5/17): Governors Gangback together for one last lockdown.

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Dason

Ambassador to the humans
#83
I'll just say it. You are terrible at expressing yourself. With almost every post you make I have no idea what you are actually trying to convey.
 
#84
I'll just say it. You are terrible at expressing yourself. With almost every post you make I have no idea what you are actually trying to convey.
So, my posts are vague in their messaging … says a moderator of an online tech forum that practices censorship, surprisingly. (How nonlinear can you get?)

Not being one myself, I'm curious: Are statisticians uncomfortable with uncertainty? ... how about humor?
 
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Dason

Ambassador to the humans
#85
Obviously your posts are entirely clear and people want to engage with them. I'm clearly wrong. Clearly we are censorship heavy here.

Just so it is publically known - we warned this user multiple times about their behavior. I've personally reached out and tried to learn more about them to get a better understanding of why they post what they do with no response. They never once contacted a moderator or even responded to the concerns in any way. We did this multiple times. Then we banned then for a short period as an additional warning. This isn't a government or a public company. This is a private board with moderation. With all of that said we allow basically anything that isn't spam and doesn't break our TOS. Even posts that break the TOS are typically allowed us it's a first time offense. I have personally had users tell me they were going to have sex with my mother. I have had users threaten me with lawsuits. I've seen it all - and those users didn't immediately get banned. They were given another chance. You are one of the few users that did actually get a short ban so consider that.

It honestly wasn't clear if you were a bot for a while because you literally refused to address any issue and/or question we presented to you.

And yes your posts are vague. And no statisticians aren't uncomfortable with uncertainty - it's basically the entire reason we exist.
 
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#86
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum

Personal questions - I am not trying to mess with you with these questions. I am just trying to figure you out. It seems like you get totally stuck on topics (e.g., football odds, then election, then pandemic), I am curious what other topics you have been obsessed with in the past? I am guessing you are too young for 911 (however the Johnny Carson image really threw me off- I am not even old enough to really get that reference), so maybe the earthquake in Haiti or 2008 recession or Boston bombing. Though you also don't write about BLM, which I wonder about as well as religious topics.

Second question, are there other forums you post all of this stuff on? Some of your posts are so long it seems like they would take quite a bit of time to draft out.

Lastly, what is your primary news source/outlet?
 
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#87
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How Conservatives Have Failed to Expose Scientific Fascism Fauxcism (5/5).

More on Fauxcism, in theory and practice (5/5), including the good Doctor’s past work in Gain-of-Function research -- for increasing viral transmission between humans -- which was later transferred to a lab in Wuhan, of all places, imagine that. You'd think this might a discussion topic, but you’d be wrong.

The Atlantic (5/4): “Progressives … stressed the scientific evidence, and then veered away from it. For this subset, diligence against COVID-19 remains an expression of political identity” (perhaps old acquaintances Aldous Huxley and George Orwell can offer some insight here, especially when it comes to maltreating others). For this COVID-forever phenomenon, as with so much else, Trump and his “calamitous presidency” are to blame, as progressives were forced to take all the opposite positions of The Donald, naturally … how downright Scientific of them.

Tangentially, from an economic-analysis standpoint, “If you subsidize something, you get more of it” (5/18).​

PSA: DON’T BUY THE FEARMONGERING! Ever rationalizing COVID restrictions, the CDC has noted that factors like COVID variants scariants could delay our herd immunity … a rational Johns Hopkins doc refutes that, with facts and figures (5/6; more here).

Change can be quite stressful: Trauma for liberals as states drop mask mandates (5/19; more here) ... perhaps they’re concerned about all those Neanderthals in their midst. Then again, mask-wearing is a very handy virtue-signal.

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SCIENCE! in the service of POLITICS!!:
  • Rep Pelosi and, as always, Dr Fauci (5/16; more here)..
  • Then again, heck with the SCIENCE!it’s all about OPTICS (5/18). Wait, now back to the SCIENCE! (5/19).
  • Ever available for commentary -- burnishing his optics -- Fauci pivots his COVID lecture to social equity, as BIPOC groups in the US have death rates from the disease that are 4-22% higher than whites, controlling solely for ethnicity (5/17; the fact that Asians have death rates 30% lower than whites is an anomaly that can be overlooked, as can every other personal-health variable, like existing comorbidities, environmental factors, etc).
  • An edgy Adam Sandler impersonator shares his wisdom on the globally coordinated lockdowns (5/17), which certainly have proceeded according to plan.
  • Does the CDC manipulate data to prop up vaccine effectiveness? (5/18) Their new guidelines are also biased against the unvaxxed, so that “unvaccinated people will find it much easier to be diagnosed with Covid19 than vaccinated people”.
  • A properly peer-reviewed NIH study on Facemasks in the COVID-19 era: A health hypothesis (Jan ’21) concluded that “Although scientific evidence supporting facemasks’ efficacy is lacking, adverse physiological, psychological and health effects are established” (more here). Apparently, that conclusion didn’t please the NIH paymasters, as the paper was RETRACTED (5/12), with the editor noting, without evidence, that “A broader review of my job security existing scientific evidence clearly shows that approved masks with correct certification, and worn in compliance with guidelines, are an effective prevention of COVID-19 transmission.”
  • White House spokeswoman 'circles back' behind the global-authority WHO, when pressed on trying to understand what the heck went on in Wuhan (5/24, more here; then again, see post below).
  • Very early in the pandemic, his recently-surfaced emails showed that Dr Fauci disregarded any input from colleagues that didn’t fit his Narrative -- nor the lockdown program about to be imposed on the country -- such as the COVID-19 virus only had a mild flu-like impact (except for the aged and infirmed), and that the virus appeared to be of unnatural Wuhan origin (6/3).
  • Faith in science’ is an oxymoron (6/5): “The modern scientific research industry is like a cross between a giant perpetual motion machine and a game of musical chairs. Scientific research is underwritten, in large part, by a steady stream of government funding. To keep the lights on in their labs, scientists need to tap into that stream. They do so by designing research projects that conform to whatever the government prioritizes at any particular moment.”
 
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#88
Q: What is the probability that COVID-19 originated in a lab?

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Old wisdom: Do NOT go there.
New wisdom: See below.

Early in the pandemic, the world’s virology community and health officials rallied around China and their Wuhan lab, as “a well-known Harvard University epidemiologist … estimated the risk of a pandemic caused by accidental release from a high-security biolab at between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 10,000 per year” ... a judicious use of rational numbers. The MIT Technology Review is skeptical of these longshot odds, at least in this case, noting that 'Top researchers are calling for a real investigation into the origin of covid-19' (5/13; more here).

Even CDC’s Dr Fauci now “admits COVID-19 could have come from the Wuhan lab” (5/11) … these '9 Fauci facts' may have something to do with that (5/14). “Not convinced” (5/23) … Fauci is apparently now in Stage #3 of the Kübler-Ross model’s five stages-of-grief: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and finally acceptance.

An ex-NY Times* ‘lead reporter on the COVID-19 pandemic’ laments that is he is now loving the ‘lab-leak theory, despite that angle being offered early on by Trumpster conspiracy theorists (5/17; *Don McNeil had lost his NYT job recently for a very Woke offense). McNeil still gives China plenty of benefit of the doubt, touting their cooperation and disclosures on the novel virus starting in early 2020 … however, a skeptic might note that Xi & Co. may have known what they had well before that, with
There’s more on the alleged ‘COVID ground zero’ here (5/19).

PRO-TIP, Statism Category: Do NOT let technocrats be the ‘arbiters of truth’, and then allow social media companies can censor other viewpoints (5/24).

Related, from a smoking-gun standpoint...
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#92
Nah. There isn't any identifying information requested and it's relevant for anybody that is still reading anything you put out there.
Now that I don't get, but whatever...
  • Everything posted is original content (along with related commentary), from sources available on the interweb.
  • My vocational background is in a technical field that requires only simple steady-state calculations, with very little uncertainty.
  • My interest in statistics and probability – and how these apply to topics like the COVID-19 pandemic, Election 2020, etc -- has been avocational, with the various algorithms presented also being original.
  • From a personal standpoint, my age would have put me in a ‘Moderate Risk’ category for COVID-19 … though I’ll take this opportunity to virtue-signal, and boast about being vaccinated, allowing me to participate in our national effort to Build Back Better.
 
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#93
Q: What is the probability that COVID-19 originated in a lab? [continuation of above post]

With the Biden Administration tasking US intelligence agencies to determine the source of the COVID-19 pandemic, things are getting interesting…
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He was certainly prescient in January 2017 (starting at 3:00 in long video).
  • ‘Will that cancer ultimately kill its host?’ … an unflattering take on the Dr Fauci regime (6/3), with many unflattering weblinks.
  • Former British MI6 head: China certainly has destroyed any and all lab-leak evidence, noting that he has been “staggered by the sheer naivete” of Western leaders believing they could “develop a relationship with China without understanding they were dealing with a communist dictatorship.” (6/3; March 2020 flashback here)
  • DRASTIC measures: “Decentralized Radical Autonomous Search Team Investigating COVID-19. Their stated objective was to solve the riddle of COVID-19’s origin” … a very comprehensive overview of the evolution of the lab-leak theory (6/3, in Vanity Fair, that renowned scientific journal) . Strangely, any involvement or even mention of Dr Fauci has been redacted … guess he’s being airbrushed from history already. You know that the article is credible, since it refers to former President Trump and his administration as being “xenophobic”, imbued with “toxic racism”, “divisiveness and lack of credibility” -- in fact, “less than zero credibility” -- showing an “unprecedented track record of mendacity and race-baiting”, all while “huffing and puffing” ... regardless of their track record on the issues. (From a cause-and-effect perspective, you get the impression that if the Trump & Co. hadn't existed, none of this would have had to happen.)
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  • Newly intrigued by the lab-leak theory, Fauci now wants to politely ask China for “the release of medical records for nine patients who fell ill with COVID-similar symptoms prior to the pandemic”. He doesn’t want to probe too harshly, as China will “pull back more, unhelpfully (6/4).
  • You may want to avert your eyesOrange Man Bad takes a victory lap, since he told-you-so (6/5).
  • Dr Fauci pushes back, claims people that “attack” him are “anti-science”, with all their “nonsense” (6/5). He also heroically takes credit for the vaccine. In addition, he has a new PPE recommendation to slow the spread of devastating (informational) viruses...
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For those that 1) prefer to be ‘unmasked’, 2) have $3, and 3) want to
  • You can’t patent an idea, only the embodiment of said idea … therefore, it’s odd that this Wuhan virologist applied for a patent for a vaccination for COVID-19 in February 2020 (6/6), just as the pandemic got going. (Said virologist died 3 months later of unspecified cause, perhaps from a deadly virus. Or not.) Vaccinations generally require several years to be developed and efficacy-tested after a virus has been identified, although Operation Warp Speed was done in about 9 months. Perhaps the Chinese learned how to compress said development cycle to a matter of weeks. Or not.
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#94
Q: What is the probability that COVID-19 originated in a lab? [continuation of above post]

With the Biden Administration tasking US intelligence agencies to determine the source of the COVID-19 pandemic, things are getting interesting…
What does any of the above have to do with statistics and probability? It all seems like weird-ass conspiracy and crackpot propaganda. This just in, WH says they can't rule out aliens in photos and video documents. Someone can always pivot and say well the Drake equation, see there are probabilities. No, the mass of the above is just noise that I don't go to a stats forum to see - it is irrelevant to the site. You can see that your posts are irrelevant, right? You get that you spend all of this effort toward the wrong audience, correct? Nobody is biting on these topics or engaging them - the exact opposite actually. People keep wondering what you are doing, or what your purpose is. These posts come off as the products of a spam bot. There are no other rants/posted on the forum like yours. People get that if they want to push stuff like this, well putting it on a stats forum is pretty silly.

Once again, not trying to troll you, we really have no idea what you are doing or why you are doing it on a stats forum. In addition, go to any stats forum and look around at the posts, they don't have anything like you are posting.
 
#95
What does any of the above have to do with statistics and probability? It all seems like weird-ass conspiracy and crackpot propaganda.
Well then, thanks so much for responding to my question: What is the probability that COVID-19 originated in a lab?

"Weird-ass conspiracy and crackpot propaganda" would suggest that you think that the probability is ZERO. And you note that's the forum consensus in general. From my naive engineering background, I would have thought that two contentious events in the past year or so that were data-driven -- 1) this pandemic and related lockdowns, and 2) Election 2020, both with a ton of statistical anomalies -- would have a more lively dialogue among statisticians, with differing viewpoints and analysis methods. Guess not.

John Maynard Keynes allegedly quipped: "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"

Just curious, what new facts/data would change your mind?
 
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hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#96
What anomalies - with overpopulation and factory farming mixed with connectivity across the globe the threat of a pandemic, is gonna happen. And trump lost. I don't see any anomalies or davinci codes. those are events and they happen. What a virus may have started in the most populous country in a city with a lab. Not surprising, every US state has a lab. And even if it did come from a lab, what difference would that make, **** gets out of labs. what if I said 100%, it came from a lab breach, what would that really change right now. It is stupid to obsess about. But wait the gov is hiding something. They are always hiding ****, that is the nature of things, who cares. Are we gonna find anything out that actually matters, no. It is all noise clouding our worthless and pointless lives. humans are not special, we just think weare important and smart, but really can't explain basic stuff like the brain processes or quantum theory.

We live on a 4.6B year old planet with 7.7B people in a universe with imminent heat death, none of this matters and is stupid small potato **** and none of it is anomalies! Show me a person that can tell the future or fly and I'll start biting on this anomally stuff!
 
#97
Are we gonna find anything out that actually matters, no. It is all noise clouding our worthless and pointless lives. humans are not special, we just think weare important and smart, but really can't explain basic stuff like the brain processes or quantum theory.

We live on a 4.6B year old planet with 7.7B people in a universe with imminent heat death, none of this matters and is stupid small potato **** and none of it is anomalies! Show me a person that can tell the future or fly and I'll start biting on this anomally stuff!
@hlsmith, your galactic outlook does seem a bit aggressively apathetic and nihilistic, and your reasoning deductive, in that your observations are measured against your existing conclusion that nothing really matters, so why bother trying to figure out anything.

I was under the impression that statistics is a tool that facilitates understanding the present reality, so that the probability of future outcomes can be more accurately assessed. If attempts to “tell the future” are as futile as humans taking flight, one could wonder what’s the use of statistics then?

But even CDC’s Dr Fauci has attempted to “tell the future” on occasion, though apparently without properly assessing the statistical probabilities and especially the outcome impact: Fauci In 2012: Gain-Of-Function Research 'Worth Risk Of Lab Accident Sparking Pandemic' (5/29).

Finally, as far as predicting the future … this yet-another COVID-19 anomaly (if confirmed) may end up being a pretty big deal, at least among non-nihilists: Chinese scientists created COVID-19 in a lab -- having ‘no credible natural ancestor’ -- and tried to cover their tracks (5/29). This “explosive new study claims researchers found 'unique fingerprints' in COVID-19 samples that they say could only have arisen from manipulation in a laboratory.”

Excerpt: 'The laws of physics mean that you cannot have four positively charged amino acids in a row [on the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus spike]. The only way you can get this is if you artificially manufacture it,' [says British researcher] Dalgleish.​

At left, the unnatural anomalies within the COVID-19 virus are highlighted with red arrows/lines; at right, the extremely anomalous impossible four-in-a-row amino acids are marked at top.
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UPDATE (5/30): Wuhan lab may have been doing “military activity alongside civilian research”. (More here, on the past Chinese preemptive propaganda that "America secretly created it", for release through Wuhan.)​

But, then again, with “all [the] noise clouding our worthless and pointless lives” … who really gives a sh*t, right?

Here's some folks who really give a sh*t...
Let’s revisit the pandemic-frontline hospital workers, whose commitment, compassion, and, yes, creativity has carried us through these trying times (6/5), perhaps with a non-pharma assist.
 
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Karabiner

TS Contributor
#98
What anomalies - with overpopulation and factory farming mixed with connectivity across the globe the threat of a pandemic, is gonna happen. And trump lost. I don't see any anomalies or davinci codes. those are events and they happen. What a virus may have started in the most populous country in a city with a lab. Not surprising, every US state has a lab. And even if it did come from a lab, what difference would that make, **** gets out of labs. what if I said 100%, it came from a lab breach, what would that really change right now. It is stupid to obsess about. But wait the gov is hiding something. They are always hiding ****, that is the nature of things, who cares. Are we gonna find anything out that actually matters, no. It is all noise clouding our worthless and pointless lives. humans are not special, we just think weare important and smart, but really can't explain basic stuff like the brain processes or quantum theory.

We live on a 4.6B year old planet with 7.7B people in a universe with imminent heat death, none of this matters and is stupid small potato **** and none of it is anomalies! Show me a person that can tell the future or fly and I'll start biting on this anomally stuff!
Excellent contribution with regard to its content.
But sadly, it turned out that you fed a troll with it.

With kind regards

Karabiner
 

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
#99
I call bullshit on that sensational-ization. I have heard from multiple people within the secret state that sasquatches were seen copulating with mermaids under-moonbows exactly 3142 days after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. This was the genesis of these non-anomalies for sure, no probabilities needed - FACT.
 

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
Excellent contribution with regard to its content.
But sadly, it turned out that you fed a troll with it.

With kind regards

Karabiner
Trolls be Trolls - don't hate the troll, hate yourself for thinking a troll has any control on their trolling actions. Come on, they serve an important role in making people wish they were dead!