WANTED: Rational Coronavirus Analysis

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
Well, China put something on the backside of the moon prior to COVID pandemic. They said it was an antenna. **** @Dason you genius, you solved it. The Chinese got covid from the darkside of the moon! Bingo, @Nonlinear_Zero-Sum, have you seen anything about this new theory about COVID coming from the Chinese military doing research in a lab with moon cheese from the darkside of the moon in the same lab that had COVID, supposedly? I think there could be an anomaly here. So about that last post, I hadn't gotten this new info let, this is a FACT. The other scenario could have happened in another m-verse after the collapse of a Psi-wave - for sure. So I guess they both are FACTS for sure. No doubt.

@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum - please share this intel with your other forums and see what they think. Because these are FACTS indubitably! This is important topics we should continue to investigate. If we don't do it, we'll accidently live normal lives without obsessing on total ****.
 

hlsmith

Less is more. Stay pure. Stay poor.
Oh don't forget about the election anomalies. @Nonlinear_Zero-Sum please tell us more about the election anomalies and post as many links as possible, but be sure to color code lots of stuff too, so I don't miss any links. I have a family reunion with the in-laws some day that I want to be properly prepared for, and impress them with my sophisticated knowledge of all things crazy. If I am missing anything please speak up. We have the election fraud stuff and manufactured covid. Both that you have proven to be real threats and truths. Is they anything else people may want me to share with them? Perhaps, Dason's moon stuff should be explored!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!666!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
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Treading the lonely path of Rational Coronavirus Analysis has been made treacherous by the projectiles thrown at one’s head on the journey (see below). Granted, these are only metaphorical aggressions, but are an integral part of one’s ‘lived experience’, regardless.

But sadly, it turned out that you fed a troll with it.
I call bullshit on that sensational-ization. I have heard from multiple people within the secret state that sasquatches were seen copulating with mermaids under-moonbows exactly 3142 days after the Fukushima nuclear disaster. This was the genesis of these non-anomalies for sure, no probabilities needed - FACT.

Trolls be Trolls - don't hate the troll, hate yourself for thinking a troll has any control on their trolling actions. Come on, they serve an important role in making people wish they were dead!
You think we faked the moon landing? You still believe in the moon? You sheep.
please share this intel with your other forums and see what they think. Because these are FACTS indubitably! This is important topics we should continue to investigate. If we don't do it, we'll accidently live normal lives without obsessing on total ****.
We have the election fraud stuff and manufactured covid. Both that you have proven to be real threats and truths. Is they anything else people may want me to share with them? Perhaps, Dason's moon stuff should be explored!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!666!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Praise satan! The dark lord has returned.

What an impressive display of solidarity in persuasion … if in a statistically insignificant, unscientific sense. Well, I guess my response needs to be, in kind: NYEH, nyeh, nyeh, NYEH, nyeh

Or, as events unfold, maybe you can find solace in the struggle of a soulmate in accepting what a ‘lab-leak confirmation’ all means (6/1):

Should it turn out that scientists and experts and NGOs, etc. are villains rather than heroes of this story, we may very well see the expert-worshiping values of modern liberalism go up in a fireball of public anger.​

As noted earlier, my stats background has been merely the characterization of steady-state materials and systems, with the simple metrics of mean, median, range and standard deviation. Perhaps you savvy stats guys might be able to provide some critique of a recent analysis by the ‘Statistician to the Stars’ of the absolute risk reduction (ARR) versus the relative risk reduction (IRR) of the various COVID-19 ‘vexs’ (6/1, scroll down thru his other skepticisms; based on Lancet study here).

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And here's some more hard data that could provide some insights -- with statistical analysis -- into how the differing pandemic-response strategies employed by the US states impacted relative unemployment and COVID-19 death rates...

MIT data scientist (6/4): Lockdowns decreased employment rates, but NOT death rates from COVID-19, with a comparative analysis of the US states (see chart below) … we gotta learn some lessons before the next inevitable pandemic comes around, hopefully approaching it with less hubris. During his Nobel acceptance speech in 1974, F.A. Hayek of the Austrian School “warned of the danger of mankind’s inability to recognize the limits of its knowledge and power … There is danger in the exuberant feeling of ever growing power which the advance of the physical sciences has engendered and which tempts man to try, ‘dizzy with success’ … to subject not only our natural but also our human environment to the control of a human will.”

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Analytic tool: Upper right = BAD, lower left = GOOD.
 
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I find your lack of faith in the dark lord....disturbing.
Oh, the Dark Lord had written off my type as a ‘heathen’ ages ago … but He recognizes that my type is just a powerless observer of events, a mere bystander.

That said, He’ll be mighty pissed if His active collaborators in His Grand Plan let it all unravel, after which He’ll need to ensure that “the expert-worshiping values of modern liberalism go up in a fireball of public anger”, as was foretold by prophet Thomas Frank of The Guardian.

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Gotta love them Dark Lord fireballs, He’s such a prankster!

In other dark news...
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  • Juicy new ‘REALLY Big Picture’ conspiracy theory: ’Davos crowd’ as the Dark Lords..!!!, by way of Cui bono?-analysis … who benefits from events (6/2, tin-foil hat territory or not). Concerned with their own waning power and prestige, wily Europeans goad the US and China -- the world’s superpowers -- into a confrontation over COVID-19 and its damage. After serving their purpose, once-useful surrogates like (disgraced fellow Davosian) Bill Gates, Gov. Cuomo, and now even Dr Fauci are thrown under the bus. BONUS: Though out of office, Trump continues to eagerly play his role as antagonist in the drama, demanding China pay the world “ten trillion dollars” in biological-war reparation (6/3).
    .....
    UPDATE (6/5): Connecting-the-dots from the Bill Gates-funded World Economic Forum’s Event 201, just before the COVID-19 outbreak, through the upcoming Cyber Polygon project (6/5). Conjoining viral pandemics and digital cyberattacks is certainly a nice touch.
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The incredible prescience of our global Elite
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fed2

Active Member
you don't give yourself enough credit, you'd make a fine satanist. You don't necessarily have to believe in satan per se. Anyway your posts stink no higher in heavens nostrils than the rest of them. I just file this all under 'f if i know', more of a fiddler on the roof than a collaborator. I think most experts in virus research will be glad to go back to no one giving a **** what they do.
 
Q: What is the probability that COVID-19 originated in a lab? [continuation of above posts: here and here]

The Wall Street Journal piles on, rational-analysis-wise: The Science Suggests a Wuhan Lab Leak (6/6, WSJ paywall; more rationality here and here, no paywall), which concludes:

The presence of the double CGG sequence is strong evidence of gene splicing, and the absence of diversity in the public outbreak suggests gain-of-function acceleration. The scientific evidence points to the conclusion that the virus was developed in a laboratory.​

Then again... Bloomberg: Fauci’s emails prove nothing about a COVID lab leak! (6/8) So, don’t get any ideas about the circumstantial evidence, since “attacks on Dr Anthony Fauci are attacks on Science!” ... or so sez Dr Anthony Fauci. Apparently, questioning Science! will take you down a dark path.

More piling-on questions:
 
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@NZS what is the probability that your blod pressure is higher than @hlsmith's?

You don't know anything about him. You have no background information about him. So tell me, what is the probability about the blod pressure! Maybe you can conclude something from this.

But I will give you an answer: The probability is 3.14% ( <-- I kind of like that number.)
 

Dason

Ambassador to the humans
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum what are you trying to accomplish posting here? You rarely if ever get any constructive feedback. You post so many links if I didn't know any better I would think you're a spam bot.

What is your background? What are you trying to accomplish? Please answer those two questions or I will ban you.
 
@Nonlinear_Zero-Sum what are you trying to accomplish posting here? You rarely if ever get any constructive feedback. You post so many links if I didn't know any better I would think you're a spam bot.

What is your background? What are you trying to accomplish? Please answer those two questions or I will ban you.
What am I trying to accomplish posting? How about meticulously piecing together a line of reasoning on [current events] independent to what’s being offered, on extremely critical societal aspects that will impact us far into the future.

As noted earlier, I’m just an impartial observer of events, with no personal or professional stake in any of this … beyond just being an American citizen, and a very concerned one at that.

Now, what’s your angle? You own this joint? Why threaten to ban me ... what do you and TalkStats gain? What I post is factual and not abusive … if it runs counter to your thoughts, please respond how, we can have a lively debate. Or just ignore it. Best for the blod pressure, y’know.
 
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Dason

Ambassador to the humans
I don't own the site. But I am a moderator and need to examine every post to make sure there isn't spam. Your posts essentially never have anything to do with actual statistics though and are full of links which typically is a sign of spam. You create more work than most spammers and honestly this thread is in "probability" and I don't really see how it is related to probability.

If anybody other than you wants to give support and say that your posts are useful to the site as a whole I'll allow you to keep posting. I'll give you two days to get at least a single post in your favor from somebody with more than five posts total and an account older than three weeks.