BLS data show that the probability of a new business remaining in business after 1 year is 80%, after 2 years it's 70%, after 5 years it drops to 50% and the probability of still being around after 10 years is 30%. What kind of distribution can I use to model this? I've been searching online for a while and can't find the answer. I think for any specific year I could use a simple Bernoulli distribution; for example, for year two, I could use Bernoulli(0.7) to model the likelihood of a particular business surviving/failing at that point. However, I'd like to find a distribution that I can sample from that will allow me to determine the probability of survivng at time t. Any suggestions?